Summary of this issue:
Crude oil: prices rose sharply. In the early part of the week, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine progressed slowly and the geopolitical crisis escalated. The International Energy Agency predicted that Russia’s daily oil supply would be reduced by 3 million barrels from April. In addition, the impact of the US interest rate hike on the market was less than expected and OPEC + had no intention to further increase production, and crude oil prices rose. In the late part of the week, the possibility of EU sanctions on Russian oil raised concerns about supply. At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not eased and the prospect of Iran’s nuclear talks is unclear. In addition, the interruption of crude oil export from Russia and Kazakhstan through the Caspian pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline, as well as the decline of US crude oil inventories and the rise of international crude oil shocks according to EIA data. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 117.66 (+ 12.92) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 112.40 (+ 11.23) USD / barrel.
PX: the market focus is rising. Crude oil prices rose sharply and the cost side support strengthened; During the week, the supply of PX market further declined with the overhaul of Yangzi Petrochemical. Although the overall commencement of downstream PTA Market weakened to some extent, with the increase of Yisheng new material unit, the decline in demand was limited. The overall supply and demand structure of PX was ok, the poor processing performance was ok and basically stable. The PX market still followed the changes of crude oil market. The focus of PX market rose with the rise of crude oil. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 121300 (+ 6.62) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 357.72 (- 84.04) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 205.37 (+ 32.20) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 76.34% (- 3.29pct).
PTA: the market focus is rising. Crude oil prices rose sharply, with strong performance in the superimposed PX market and strong cost side support; From the perspective of PTA market itself, the processing fee of the industry is still low, and it is difficult to improve the production willingness of the factory. The overall commencement of the market in the week shows a trend of falling first and then rising. The downstream polyester maintains a high commencement state, and PTA supply and demand maintains a de stocking state. Superimposed with the mainstream suppliers, they propose to reduce the contract supply in April within the week, and the basis of the spot market has strengthened significantly. However, affected by the epidemic, local logistics and transportation are slow, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 609000 (+ 244.29) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is -222.95 (+ 110.57) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 66.20% (- 1.50pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 1852000 (- 71000) tons.
MEG: market price consolidation operation. The price of crude oil rose sharply, the international price of naphtha rose at the same time, the price of power coal rose at a high level, and the cost side was good, with strong support. From the supply side, the shipment volume of the port this week is relatively small, and the inventory continues to rise. In terms of the commencement of Chinese units, one unit in South China is stopped, the restart time is to be determined, and one unit in Northwest China is stopped for a short time. Therefore, China’s output is reduced compared with last week, and the supply side is good. In terms of demand, the order situation in the terminal market is still not optimistic. At the same time, the epidemic situation in many places in China has been repeated, the production and sales situation of the polyester industry has not been significantly improved, the factory inventory is high, the raw material procurement is cautious, and the performance before demand is weak. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 515143 (+ 49.29) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 942100 (- 14000) tons, and the operating rate is 67.00% (- 3.20pct).
Polyester filament: market narrow adjustment. At the beginning of the week, the multi offer of polyester filament enterprises was stable, the resistance in the downstream was rising, the just needed procurement was the main, and the market was in a stalemate. In the middle of the week, the double raw materials rose and fell, and the cost side support was OK. The quotation of some filament manufacturers was increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, some manufacturers continued preferential shipments, and the on-site FDY production and sales data improved slightly, but there was no substantial improvement in terminal demand. The enterprise’s future expectation was cautious and multi stable. After the discount was cancelled, the market returned to a light state. At present, the international oil price has risen sharply, the support of dual raw material end is strong, but the demand end continues to be depressed, the resistance to the rise of polyester filament is large, the quotation of some enterprises has been increased by a narrow margin, and the focus of market transactions has been adjusted by a narrow margin. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy822714 (- 192.86) yuan / ton, fdy863571 (- 385.71) yuan / ton and dty982857 (- 150.00) yuan / ton, and the industry’s average profit per ton is POY + 58.58 (- 278.56) yuan / ton and fdy64.00 yuan / ton respectively 27 (- 406.56) yuan / ton and DTY + 258.64 (- 250.12) yuan / ton. The stock days of polyester filament enterprises are poy27.5 yuan / ton respectively 80 (+ 1.30) days, fdy28 50 (+ 1.00) days and dty32 20 (+ 1.20) days, operating rate 88.40% (-0.50pct).
Weaving: the market atmosphere is depressed. The severe epidemic has a certain impact on the production, transportation and sales of some enterprises and the business of traders in some light textile markets. The startup rate of weaving factories has declined slightly, the domestic and foreign trade markets are relatively light, the downstream users just need to buy, and the market atmosphere is depressed. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 64.03% (-2.83pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 34.00 (+ 0.00) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market fluctuated and rose. Crude oil prices are high, the cost side support is strong, and short fiber enterprises have raised their quotations one after another. However, the arrival of new orders in the downstream is insufficient, and the epidemic spread in many places, affecting the purchasing sentiment in the downstream, and the overall production and sales of short fiber enterprises are flat. Then, the oil price rose, which significantly boosted the short fiber enterprises. However, due to the poor production and sales of the previous day, the quotation of short fiber enterprises was more stable, increased individually, and the transaction focus shifted slightly upward. In the late part of the week, the crude oil price fell, the cost support slowed down, the superimposed demand was insufficient, the real order preference increased, and the transaction focus shifted downward. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 787429 (+ 167.14) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is -9.69 (- 39.62) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 2.80 (+ 1.00) days, and the operating rate is 78.60% (- 1.60pct).
Polyester bottle chip: market shock downward. On the supply side, at present, the construction of enterprises is basically stable and the market supply is acceptable. The inventory of China’s polyester bottle and chip factories increased this week. This week, due to the sharp rise in the crude oil market, the cost support is strong, but the downstream is more resistant to high price sources, and there are few market transactions. On the demand side, due to the recent repeated outbreaks in various regions, strict control in various regions, logistics and transportation difficulties, coupled with the recent high volatility of the raw material market, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is more intense, and the replenishment mood is depressed. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 837857 (+ 160.71) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 457.76 (- 43.89) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 95.20% (+ 0.00pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to March 25, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 121.59%, petroleum and petrochemical industry index increased by – 1.33%, and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index increased by 8.55%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
