1. What about TOPCON Premium: rigid premium is about 0.04-0.05 yuan / w (corresponding to the dilution of BOS related to the area) + semi-rigid premium is about 0.04 yuan / w (corresponding to the measurable low attenuation) + elastic premium (3% and 1% of power generation in the first year correspond to premiums of 0.23-0.24 yuan / W and 0.13 yuan / W respectively, including semi-rigid premium of 0.04 yuan / W)
A) rigidity Premium: component efficiency rise → watt per unit area rise → area related BOS costs (Civil Engineering, support, etc.) are diluted. Therefore, rigidity premium is easy to quantify and can be directly accepted by downstream customers. As the efficiency of TOPCON components (about 21.83% based on case calculation) is higher than that of perc (21.05%), it is expected that TOPCON can realize a premium of about 0.04 yuan / W relative to perc.
B) semi rigid Premium: the low attenuation rate corresponds to the premium. Because the attenuation rate can be measured quantitatively, the downstream premium has a high acceptance. Based on the calculation of 25-year life cycle (average annual utilization time 1250h), assuming that the power generation in the first year is flat, the power generation gain in the whole life cycle is about 0.6%, assuming that the IRR at the power station end is flat, the corresponding component premium is about 0.04 yuan / W.
C) elasticity Premium: high double-sided rate + low temperature coefficient can increase the power generation of TOPCON by about 3% compared with perc in the first year; This part of the premium is soft. i) High double-sided rate: the double-sided rate of TOPCON can reach 80% +, which is 10 PCTs higher than perc; II) low temperature coefficient: it can guarantee the power generation during temperature rise. At present, the power generation gain of TOPCON component of ground power station in the first year can reach 3% compared with perc, and the corresponding premium is about 0.23-0.24 yuan / w (including semi-rigid premium of 0.04 yuan / W). Since there is no rigid quantitative standard + it is difficult to clarify the rights and responsibilities of subsequent operation and maintenance, the corresponding premium of power generation gain in the first year is relatively soft. Based on the 1% gain of power generation in the first year approved by the terminal power station, the premium is about 0.13 yuan / w (including semi-rigid premium of 0.04 yuan / W). Since the beginning of 2022, the price difference between TOPCON and perc components in China Nuclear Huineng and Guodian investment projects is more than 0.14 yuan / W. It shows that the terminal power station has recognized part of the power generation gain (soft premium) brought by TOPCON to the owner and is optimistic about the excess return brought by product differentiation brought by new technology to the enterprise.
2. How to look at the cost of TOPCON: under the existing technology, the total cost (integration) of TOPCON components is expected to be about 1.56 yuan / W, which is 0.04-0.05 yuan higher than perc / wtopcon. The reason for the cost increase: complex process flow + high silver consumption. The process is 2-3 steps more than perc + high silver slurry consumption, which makes the CAPEX and non silicon costs of TOPCON battery equipment higher than perc. In addition, n-type silicon wafer requires higher purity. Under the current technology, the yield of silicon wafer is still lower than perc, reducing the cost. a) Silicon wafer: n-type slicing + increasing wattage dilutes the cost, and the cost is basically leveled. Cost increase: silicon material price increase (about 4%) + silicon wafer end efficiency & yield decrease (non silicon is expected to increase by 30%); Cost reduction: slicing (can be reduced to 150um, perc is 160um) + wattage increase diluted auxiliary material cost (diluted about 6%). The calculated TOPCON cost of silicon wafer is about 0.64 yuan / w (perc is 0.63 yuan / W).
B) battery: the non silicon cost of TOPCON is 0.046 yuan / W higher, and the cost increase is due to the capex of new equipment (about 0.5-0.6 points / W), energy consumption (about 0.5 points / W) and high silver consumption (the main reason is the increase of 0.034 yuan / W). I) CAPEX and energy consumption of new equipment: the capex of TOPCON is increased (from 130 million yuan / GW to 190 million yuan / GW) due to the increase of boron Expansion & CVD equipment, and the corresponding depreciation is 0.5-0.6 points / W; The energy consumption is expected to increase by 10.5% per watt, which is higher than perc. II) high silver consumption: TOPCON adopts silver paste on both sides (perc one side), the consumption of single silver paste is about 120mg (perc 70mg), and the corresponding cost is increased by 0.034 yuan / W. It is estimated that the total cost of TOPCON integrated battery is about 0.91 yuan / W, which is 0.05-0.06 yuan / W higher than perc.
C) components: wattage liter diluted area related non silicon cost is about 6%. When packaging components, adhesive film, glass, frame, etc. are area related costs. The cost of perc is about 0.47 yuan / w (adhesive film 0.1 + glass 0.15 + component frame, junction box, welding strip and other auxiliary materials 0.22). It is expected that TOPCON can be reduced by about 2 points / W. The full integration cost of TOPCON component end is about 1.556 yuan / W, which is about 0.046 yuan / W higher than perc's 1.51 yuan / W. In the future, with the increase of yield + slicing + efficiency, it is expected that the cost of subsequent TOPCON integrated components is expected to be equal to perc.
Investment suggestion: the industrialization of TOPCON is opening the curtain of photovoltaic cell technology reform, and relevant manufacturers are expected to enjoy technology premium. Key recommendations: Jingke energy; It is suggested to pay attention to Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , etc.
Risk tip: TOPCON premium is less than expected and is subject to the game of industrial chain. TOPCON premium may not be fully reflected due to changes in market supply and demand; The cost reduction process of TOPCON is not as expected. If the scale effect / high silver consumption cannot be improved, it is difficult to reduce the cost; TOPCON market demand and cost reduction and efficiency increase, or the progress is less than expected due to external factors such as the epidemic, which will significantly affect the profitability of relevant companies; The report contains the researcher's calculation for reference only.
