Covid-19 epidemic has lasted for more than two years. In the long run, the probability of “coexistence” will be the end. The harm of Omicron can not be ignored. The transformation of epidemic prevention in China needs to be gradual and fully prepared. The certainty of vaccine drug demand continues to improve.
Key points supporting rating
“Coexisting with the virus” will be the end. As some countries in Europe and the United States successively announced to stop epidemic prevention restrictions, covid-19 virus has been difficult to be eliminated worldwide, and coexistence with the virus will probably become the end. China has implemented “dynamic clearing” for a long time. If it turns to “coexistence” in the future, it may experience pain. In order to achieve a “soft landing”, vaccines and drugs are of great importance.
The transformation of prevention and control is gradual, and the harm of Omicron cannot be underestimated. The number of severe cases and deaths in countries that have experienced Omicron epidemic in this round of outbreak is no less than that in delta period. To shift to coexistence, we need to make full preparations, accelerate the research and development of vaccines and drugs, improve the vaccination rate and expand medical facilities. Try to avoid possible run on medical resources and reduce the possible risk of death. At present, continuing the “dynamic reset” can buy more time for the above preparations.
Strengthen the needle market, and the effect of heterologous sequential immunization is better. China’s vaccination rate is close to 50%, and there is still room for improvement. Many studies have shown that strengthening acupuncture can effectively reduce the infection rate, severe disease rate and mortality. At the same time, heterologous sequence showed better protective effect in the experiment.
The demand for domestic covid-19 drugs is highly uncertain. Pfizer paxlovid has limited production capacity, high price and “neck sticking” risk. However, China has a large population base and needs sufficient and reliable covid-19 drug reserves. Therefore, the demand for self-controlled domestic covid-19 drugs is highly deterministic.
Key recommendation
Covid-19 vaccine focuses on Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , which may be newly approved; Focus on the progress of vid in China.
Main risks of rating
Risk of epidemic change, change of national health policy, risk of review and approval, less than expected R & D progress, less than expected sales, and risk of international relations.
