\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 391 Aecc Aero Science And Technology Co.Ltd(600391) )
Key investment points
One of the national aero-engine development teams and one of the three listed platforms of Hangfa group
1) born in Chengdu Development Group, the company is one of the largest and most advanced aero-engine manufacturing enterprises in China. In 2011, AVIC Kazakhstan axis was established as a fixed increase to enter the field of high-end aviation bearings.
2) in 2020, the company's domestic trade revenue accounted for 62% and foreign trade accounted for 32%. In 2021, the scale of domestic trade revenue increased significantly, the downward trend of foreign trade business stopped, the revenue in the first three quarters increased by 48% year-on-year, and the annual loss turned into profit. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 19 ~ 23 million yuan.
3) the company is one of the three major listed platforms of Hangfa group. At present, the asset securitization rate of Hangfa group is 57%. There is still room for further capitalization in its business segments such as aviation transmission system, aviation advanced materials, commercial engine / small and medium-sized turboshaft engine / gas turbine manufacturing.
Domestic trade: the compound growth rate of aeroengine in the 14th five year plan exceeded 20%, and the company's supporting important models were transferred to batch production
1) the large-scale growth of advanced military aeroengines is an urgent need for national defense construction. The development of commercial engines is an inevitable choice for China's industrial upgrading. Aeroengines also have a huge post maintenance market. Based on the above, it is estimated that the average annual scale of China's aeroengine market during the 14th five year plan is about 48 billion, with a compound growth rate of about 20%.
2) compared with the United States, there is a large gap in the number of large military aircraft such as Chinese transport aircraft / bombers, and the large quantity of important models is imminent, which will also play a driving role in aeroengines. The main supporting engine models of the company have been transferred to batch production, and the value of supporting parts and components accounts for nearly 80%, which will benefit from the large volume of supporting models. 3) Harbin axle of the company is the only professional bearing research and development enterprise of Hangfa group, which undertakes four types of aviation bearing supporting, such as aeroengine spindle bearing and helicopter transmission system bearing. The compound growth rate of revenue / net profit in the past four years was 11% / 14% respectively. The value of aeroengine bearing / transmission system in the whole engine accounted for about 5%. In the future, it will benefit from the overall equipment volume of aviation development and military aircraft industry.
Foreign trade: the global civil aviation manufacturing industry is expected to recover gradually. The company occupies an important position in the field of foreign trade subcontracting. In the past two years, the global delivery of commercial aircraft and engines has decreased significantly, and the subsequent epidemic has gradually stabilized. Boeing predicts that the global civil aviation market is expected to recover from 2023 to 2024. The company has a market share of about 1 / 3 in the field of foreign trade subcontracting of engines in China, which will significantly benefit from the recovery of the global civil aviation manufacturing industry.
Profit forecast: the compound growth rate of performance from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 150%
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.21/0.71/133 billion, with a year-on-year increase of - / 244% / 88%, EPS of RMB 0.06/0.21/0.40, PE of 341 / 99 / 53 times and PS of 1.8/1.5/1.2 times. For the first coverage, the "buy" rating is given with reference to the company's historical PS valuation level.
Risk warning: the improvement of the company's profitability is less than expected; The environment or competition pattern of foreign trade subcontracting business has deteriorated.
