\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 597 Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) )
Event:
Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) release annual performance: the operating revenue will reach 29.206 billion yuan in 2021, the same as + 15.59%; The net profit attributable to the parent is 592 million yuan, the same as – 2.55%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 433 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 6.50%. EPS is 0.48 yuan / share, and the proposed dividend per share is 0.16 yuan. Key investment points:
The revenue target was successfully achieved, and the loss of overseas business dragged down the company’s performance. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 29.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.59% and a completion rate of 108.17%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 592 million yuan, with a year-on-year rate of – 2.55% and a completion rate of 88.54%. In the fourth quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 7.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.61%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 147 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 16.3%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent of 99 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 31.13%. The company’s performance completion rate did not meet the standard, dragged down by overseas business losses. In 2021, the company’s subsidiary New Zealand xinlaite realized a revenue of 6.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.68%, and a current loss of 40 million yuan (in 2020, xinlaite realized an operating revenue of 6.321 billion yuan and a net profit of 303 million yuan). Xinlaite’s loss was mainly due to: 1) the sharp rise in the price of raw milk in New Zealand; 2) New Zealand’s shipping capacity is insufficient, and the international shipping cost has increased significantly; 3) The cross-border sales channels of key customers were affected by the epidemic. The annual business plan of the company in 2022 is: the operating revenue is 31.777 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 670 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.18%.
The rising cost of raw materials affects the company’s gross profit, and the overall cost level remains stable. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 18.35%, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.70%. By category: in 2021, the company’s liquid milk / animal husbandry / other dairy products achieved a gross profit margin of 27.15% / 2.92% / 4.47%, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.57% / – 3.77% / – 5.32%. The continuous record high cow feed price and raw milk price in 2021 are the main reasons for the decline of the company’s gross profit margin. Globally, affected by global inflation, commodity prices have risen, and the production cost of global pasture milk has continued to rise. In 2021, the purchase price of fresh milk across the country remained high, with an average price of 4.29 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of + 13.20% compared with 2020. In 2021, the company’s expense rate during the period was 15.98%, with a year-on-year rate of – 0.91%, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 12.50% / 2.79% / 0.31% / 0.39% and – 0.46% / – 0.48% / – 0.07% / + 0.10% respectively. The overall expense level remained basically stable.
The growth rate of the company’s liquid milk revenue is still bright, and the revenue outside Shanghai is accelerating. By product,
In 2021, the company’s liquid milk / animal husbandry / other dairy products achieved a revenue of RMB 17.1012290/8.480 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 19.85% / + 11.01% / + 8.86%. By region, in 2021, the revenue of Shanghai / overseas / overseas was 7.965/14.234/6.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.81% / + 19.54% / + 4.89%. The high growth of liquid milk in the core category is mainly due to the continuous introduction of new products and high-end structural upgrading of the company. In 2021, the company launched Zhiyou A2 β- New products such as casein fresh milk, 0 sucrose truthful drinking series products, new flavor of moslian white peach, hero alliance famous universe flavor pop bead yogurt, Youjia 3.8 protein pure milk and so on have continuously promoted the upgrading of the company’s product structure. At the same time, the speed of foreign markets increased significantly year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly due to the expansion of sales radius of fresh ranch products and the expansion of channels such as free order. According to the company’s annual report, through more than one year of operation and functional iteration, the peak data processing capacity of free order platform has reached more than 15 times, the order creation speed has increased twice, the platform members have increased by 29.5% year-on-year, the monthly live users have increased by 4.8% and the customer service efficiency has increased by 28.85%.
5. Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.49 yuan, 0.57 yuan and 0.63 yuan respectively, and the PE will be 23 / 20 / 18. The company will be rated as “overweight” for the first time.
6. Risk tips: 1) the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, 2) the price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations, 3) the performance of new products on the market was less than expected, 4) the industry competition was intensified, 5) food safety problems, etc.
