\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Events
On March 29, the company disclosed the main operating data of the first quarter, during which the total revenue was about 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 24%.
Business analysis
The operation in the first quarter was in line with expectations, and the growth trend remained stable. The company disclosed the results of the first quarter. The growth rate of revenue end / profit end was about 25% / 24% respectively, mainly due to the better dynamic sales in the province during the Spring Festival, and the growth rate in advantageous regions such as Nanjing was relatively higher; Combined with the previous operating data from January to February, we calculated that the company achieved an income of 550 million yuan in March alone, a year-on-year increase of + 25.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 60 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.7%. It is expected that the cost side will be disturbed in the short term. Since March, Jiangsu is still affected by sporadic outbreaks, but the company's revenue side performance is still stable. We expect that the current payment collection progress is about 40% +, and the channel feedback is that the counter opening price in the province is 260 ~ 270 yuan; The four opening price is 420 ~ 440 yuan and the terminal price is 450 ~ 460 yuan. The overall price remains relatively stable under the fluctuation of demand.
It is still suggested to grasp the main line of "structural upgrading + regional expansion" in the medium and long term. 1) From the perspective of product structure, in the first quarter, the number of off-site and off-site services increased steadily; Benefiting from the group purchase demand, the volume growth rate of V3 and V9 is relatively higher, and the proportion of V series is expected to be about 10%; With the establishment of V9 business unit and V99 alliance, the company's product structure is expected to continue to be optimized under the promotion of V-series. 2) From the perspective of regional structure, the company aims to reach 20% outside the province by the end of the 14th five year plan. At present, the proportion is expected to be less than 10%. The increase of the proportion is not obvious, mainly because the growth rate of the advantageous market in the province itself is not low, and there is still great potential for breakthrough outside the province under the construction of the model market. The company's previous dealer conference clearly increased market investment and implemented the excellent business plan. We believe that the company will still promote product end optimization and expansion outside the province. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the double main line logic of "structural upgrading + regional expansion" in the medium and long term and the promotion progress of equity incentive.
Profit forecast
We expect that the revenue growth rate of the company in 21-23 years will be 25% / 24% / 22% respectively, corresponding to a revenue of 6.4/79/9.7 billion yuan; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 28% / 25% / 23% respectively, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2 / 25 / 3.1 billion; EPS is 1.59/1.99/2.45 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 25 / 20 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risks, less than expected expansion outside the province, increased risks of regional competition and food safety problems.
