\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 998 Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) )
Core view
From January to February, the operation was stable and the general agent business developed rapidly. According to the company's announcement, from January to February of 22 years, the company's operating revenue increased steadily, and the net profit deducted from non parent company increased by more than 15% year-on-year. It is expected that the net profit deducted from non parent company in 22q1 will be 471 million yuan - 496 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12% - 18%. It is worth mentioning that in 21q1, the company's operating revenue was 32.629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.08%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 420 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.08%. In other words, the company's performance has recovered rapid growth in the first quarter of 21. In the first quarter of this year, the company still achieved this performance under the situation of serious outbreak of epidemic in China, which once again proves the performance toughness of the company. In addition, from January to February of the 22nd year, the general agent sales business maintained a rapid growth (the sales revenue from January to February increased by 29% year-on-year). With the further deepening of centralized purchase, the CSO attribute of the general agent sales business became more and more prominent.
Create platform attributes and dig deep into the value of the industrial chain. The company will continue to rely on the industry's scarce all channel, all category and all scene pharmaceutical supply chain service platform, promote the continuous transformation of business to platform, Internet and digital, and further explore the value of the industrial chain. In addition to the general agent and general sales business, the company has developed rapidly in the direction of retail pharmacies. By the end of February 2022, 5412 pharmacies have joined in. It is estimated that the number of pharmacies joined in by the end of 2022 will exceed 10000, and the store expansion plan is optimistic; Core businesses such as C-end health and emerging businesses such as third-party logistics and ecosystem investment are also developing in an orderly manner.
The backbone of epidemic prevention and anti epidemic is expected to accelerate its growth in the post epidemic era. According to the information on the company's official website, Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) medical device group has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement on covid-19 antigen detection kit with Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , huaketai biology and other companies. On the one hand, the company actively and quickly responded to covid-19 antigen detection and screening, and signed cooperation agreements with relevant companies within a short time after the antigen detection products were approved, which shows the efficient operation and management ability of the company and the position of the company in the industrial chain; On the other hand, we believe that in the post epidemic era, the company will further accelerate the pace of growth. As a private leading enterprise in the field of pharmaceutical circulation, the enterprise vitality is significantly stronger than that of state-owned enterprises. The company is expected to enjoy the accelerated growth brought by the improvement of the concentration of the circulation industry and the extension of the industrial chain.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Due to the great impact of the epidemic in 21 years, we lowered the company's profit forecast. It is predicted that the company's EPS in 21-22 years will be 1.46/1.70/1.97 yuan (originally predicted that the EPS in 21-22 years will be 1.58/1.87 yuan). According to the comparable company, the company will be given a 21-year valuation of 13X, corresponding to the target price of 18.98 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
The risk of exceeding the expectation of volume purchase, the risk of untimely collection of accounts receivable and the risk of upward interest rate
