\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarter forecast. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.6%; Deduct non net profit of 122 million yuan, an increase of 173.72% year-on-year. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110745 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.68%; Deduct non net profit of -20.94 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -507.43%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 1.15-1.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.93-41.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 55-75 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 71.72-134.16%.
Cheese business grows rapidly, and high gross profit business drives the optimization of gross profit margin. In 2021, the company's cheese revenue was 3.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 60.8%. The proportion of cheese business in gross profit further increased from 92.06% in 20 years to 94.93% in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 2.87 PCT. Q1 despite the problems of poor logistics transportation of raw materials and finished products and significant reduction of terminal passenger flow under the epidemic, the company's performance still achieved good growth, and the revenue of main cheese products continued to grow. From the perspective of splitting business, the gross profit margin of cheese / liquid milk / trading products was 48.51% / 13.73% / 3.9% respectively. Compared with + 3.14pct / - 4.19pct / + 1.92pct respectively in 20 years, the scale effect of cheese business gradually appeared, superimposed with the growth of cheese product sales with high gross profit, driving the gross profit margin of cheese business to rise.
The increase of Q4 sales rate affects the performance of the expense side in 21 years, and is optimistic about the increase of net interest rate in 22 years. The cost rate of the company during the 21 years was 33.75%, of which the cost rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were 25.87% / 7.67% / 0.9% / - 0.69% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.91 / + 2.74 / - 0.47 / - 1.71pct. From the disassembly to the single quarter, the sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate of 21q4 are + 9.63 / + 3.34 / - 0.66 / - 1.7pct respectively, and the net profit level of 21q4 is low, which is mainly due to the company's increased advertising investment in preparing for the promotion of gift boxes for the Spring Festival. Looking forward to 22 years, the cheese business will drive the gross profit margin to increase, the superimposed expenses will return to the normal level, and the net profit margin is expected to increase.
Products: the "1 + N + X" strategy has been steadily promoted, high-end new products have been laid out, and continuous efforts have been made for 22 years. With the steady progress of the company's "1 + N + X" strategy, the company will enrich its product matrix in 22 years. In terms of instant nutritional cheese, the company actively arranges high-end products such as zero addition; In terms of normal temperature cheese, the company took the lead in launching normal temperature cheese sticks in the industry in September 2021; In terms of family table cheese, "baking three treasures" have been enriched; In the cheese field of catering industry, we will continue to maintain the leading position of domestic large package mozzarella cheese. On the production capacity side, the company's production capacity is significantly ahead of its competitors. The production of 22 annual production line will lay the foundation for the rapid growth of cheese.
Channel: 2C terminal insists on "refining at low temperature and expanding at normal temperature", and dealers expand steadily; The development effect of 2B terminal is obvious. At 2C end, the company insists on "refining at low temperature and expanding at normal temperature", and the investment attraction is progressing smoothly. By the end of 2021, the company has 5363 dealers and the sales network covers about Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) retail terminals. In the year of 22, the company adjusted its organizational structure. The business divisions of low temperature and normal temperature were merged and divided into North and south areas for management. This is expected to reduce the overlap of normal temperature and low temperature cheese in terminals. In the year of 22, more terminals will be reached through dealers. At the 2B end, the company has developed more than 500 terminals such as Paris Beitian, weiduomei, Qingmei and crab champion, and made breakthroughs in five channels: Chinese food, Western food, baking, tea and industry.
Investment suggestion: the market share of the company has increased steadily. The introduction of normal temperature cheese and new products on the income side has further driven the cheese business income, and the scale effect on the profit side is gradually reflected. It is expected that the company will further optimize the cost investment and improve the net interest rate in 22 years. Based on the expectation of cheese revenue improvement and rate optimization, the revenue and profit of 22-23 companies are increased. It is estimated that the total operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.540/84.28/10.433 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.0% / 28.9% / 23.8% respectively; From 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 499 / 852 / 1242 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 222.9% / 70.8% / 45.8% respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the price of raw materials continues to rise, and the sales of new products are less than expected
