\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 713 Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) )
Key investment points
Event: Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) announced the results of 2021, and the company achieved an annual operating revenue of 8.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 152.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 430 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 49.7%; RMB 410 million was deducted from non parent company, with a year-on-year increase of + 50.6%. In a single quarter, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 158.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68.9%; Deduct 130 million yuan of non return to parent, a year-on-year increase of + 81.5%. The revenue of 2021q1-q4 was RMB 1.44 billion, RMB 2.02 billion, RMB 2.49 billion and RMB 2.7 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 0.8 billion, RMB 110 million, RMB 120 million and RMB 130 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 46.1%, + 21.0%, + 66.9% and 68.9% respectively.
The development of logistics business continues. In 2021, the company achieved an overall logistics of 5.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 101.2%; The overall gross profit margin of logistics business is 13%. In terms of splitting, the logistics business under the new caliber includes MGF global freight forwarding business, MTT global shipping and tank container business, MRW regional warehouse distribution integration business, MRT regional domestic trade delivery and MPC global engineering logistics and dry bulk cargo. In 2021, the global freight forwarding business + tank business achieved a revenue of 3.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 157.7%, and a gross profit margin of 9.8% (- 2.8pp), with revenue of 3.11 billion yuan and 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 185% and 35%, respectively. Benefiting from the shortage of transportation capacity brought by the high boom of foreign trade, the freight rate showed a high range. In 2021, the warehouse distribution business achieved a revenue of 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.7% and a gross profit margin of 43.1% (- 5.1pp). The company’s warehousing business was significantly affected by the business cycle of the chemical industry, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly in the first half of the year. 2021h2 company adjusted its strategy and the capacity utilization rate rebounded. In 2021, the regional domestic trade delivery business achieved a revenue of 1.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.0% and a gross profit margin of 9.1% (- 2.9pts). This business corresponds to the transportation business of the original caliber and is significantly affected by the fluctuation of oil price. Global engineering logistics and dry bulk cargo business will be added in 2021, with a revenue of 230 million; The gross profit margin is 9.9%.
Chemical products trading business is developing rapidly. In 2021, the company’s trading business of MCD chemicals reached 3.13 billion yuan in the whole year, with a year-on-year + 352.6% and a gross profit margin of 5.4% (year-on-year – 1.7pp). The company’s chemical products trading service is committed to building a “chemical Amazon” through the construction and coordination of online platform and offline one-stop comprehensive logistics services to realize online diversion, offline and offline back feeding online.
Extensive mergers and acquisitions expand the field of logistics, endogenous growth, and deepen chemical trade. In 2022, the company will continue to consolidate the basic work and continuously build the strategic objectives and core competence matching the strategic objectives, including strengthening the science and innovation gene, increasing the investment in background empowerment and innovation courses. In 2022, the capacity of Singapore business will continue to be realized, and European and North American businesses will be gradually opened.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We are optimistic about the company’s extensive expansion of logistics business boundary, endogenous deep cultivation of chemical products distribution network, and long-term commitment to building a “chemical Amazon”. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 / 24 will be 630 million yuan, 910 million yuan and 1.22 billion yuan respectively, EPS will be 382 million yuan, 5.55 yuan and 7.41 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 32x, 22x and 16x respectively. We believe that under the long-term development strategy of the company, the logistics business will develop steadily and the chemical business will grow rapidly in the future. We will give 38 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 146 yuan, and give a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the demand for chemicals fluctuates, the risk of safe production and the extension of M & A are not as expected.
