\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 779 Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) )
Main points:
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an annual operating revenue of 6.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 240.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 701 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 538.17%; Deduct 682 million yuan of non net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 753.37%; The gross profit margin was 16.85%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.38 PCT; The net profit margin of sales was 10.24%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.78pct.
The volume and price of ternary cathode business have risen simultaneously, overseas business has made great efforts, and the scale of revenue has increased significantly,
In 2021, the company shipped more than 42000 tons of ternary cathode, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7%; The cost transmission of cathode material manufacturers is relatively smooth, and the product unit price is expected to reach 148000 yuan / ton. The strong demand in the lower reaches led to the simultaneous rise of the positive maximum price of Sanyuan, and the corresponding revenue reached 6.235 billion yuan, accounting for 91.13%. The core position was further consolidated. The company’s overseas business generated 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 210.44%, and the future performance is expected. Relying on its excellent cost control ability, the company’s net profit per ton of three yuan cathode was about 15000 yuan in 21 years; According to the calculation of the median net profit attributable to the parent company of 300 million yuan in the performance forecast of the first quarter of 22, the net profit per ton is expected to be about 20000 yuan. The company’s performance increased significantly and its profitability continued to improve.
In 21q4, the parent company’s revenue and profit increased month on month, and the performance continued to be realized
The shipment of 21q4 ternary cathode is expected to be 12000 tons, with a month on month increase of 20%; The company achieved a revenue of 2.305 billion yuan, an increase of 36.63% month on month, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 214 million yuan, an increase of 23.7% month on month, and a non net profit attributable to the parent company of 208 million yuan, highlighting the strong hematopoietic ability of the main business and solid performance.
The company’s production capacity increased rapidly and its position in the industry was further consolidated
In 2021, the first line of ternary cathode in phase I of the company’s high-tech base was put into operation, with an effective capacity of 50000 tons. Subsequently, the continuous production capacity will be gradually implemented. It is expected that the effective production capacity of the company will reach 80000 / 120000 tons in 2022 / 2023. Meanwhile, 60000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode are under construction, forming an effective supply, and the performance will continue to be realized.
Investment advice
Based on the company’s rising product volume and price, rapid capacity expansion, significant cost advantage, high performance and strong growth certainty; It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company on 22 / 23 / 24 is RMB 1.29/19.46/1.98 billion respectively, EPS is 0.67/1.01/1.03 respectively, and the corresponding P / E is 28x / 19x / 18x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicles is less than expected; Capacity expansion and product development are less than expected; Material price fluctuation, etc.
