\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 899 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) )
There are a number of world-class high-quality mineral resources all over the world, which has rapidly grown into a global enterprise in the metal mining industry
Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) is engaged in the exploration and development of copper, gold, zinc and other basic metal mineral resources and new energy mineral resources all over the world, moderately extends smelting and processing, trade finance and other businesses, and has a relatively complete industrial chain. The company operates about 30 major mining projects and a number of world-class incremental projects around the world, focusing on independent design, construction, operation and management, forming a "Zijin model" with high efficiency, high efficiency and low cost, including 13 overseas project layout countries and 14 Chinese project layout provinces / regions. The company has abundant resource reserves, including 62.77 million tons of copper, 2373 tons of gold, 9.62 million tons of zinc and 7.63 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, of which the copper reserves are equivalent to about 75% of China's total reserves. In recent years, the company's copper mine capacity has shown explosive growth, the gold mine capacity has continued to improve, the zinc mine has China's leading advantage, and the lithium carbonate capacity is expected to be completed and put into operation in a short time. The multi variety combination can effectively resist the risk of price rotation of different metals. This paper focuses on the detailed and systematic combing of the company's 30 main mine projects.
The peak of commodity boom cycle, and the production and sales of core minerals are expected to continue to grow rapidly
The output of the company's main mineral products in 2021 is: 47.45 tons of mineral gold, a year-on-year increase of + 17.28%; 584200 tons of mineral copper (including 41900 tons of equity output of kamoa copper industry), a year-on-year increase of + 28.92%; 434400 tons of mineral zinc (lead), a year-on-year increase of + 14.81%; 309 tons of mineral silver, a year-on-year increase of + 3.34%; 4.25 million tons of iron concentrate, a year-on-year increase of + 9.71%. In the 2021 annual report, the company also gives the output guidelines for 2022: it is expected that the mineral gold will be 60 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.45%; 860000 tons of mineral copper, a year-on-year increase of + 47.21%; Mineral zinc (lead) 480000 tons, year-on-year + 10.50%; 310 tons of mineral silver; 3.2 million tons of iron concentrate; It is estimated that the investment expenditure for project construction (including technical transformation) is planned to be 20 billion yuan. In addition, the company predicts that the annual output of mineral gold will reach 80-90 tons and that of mineral copper will reach 1-1.1 million tons in 2025. At present, the global bulk metal prices are at historical highs. Comex gold price is about 1900 US dollars / ounce, LME copper price is about 10000 US dollars / ton, and LME zinc price is about 4000 US dollars / ton. The layout of the company on the resource side has overcome multiple challenges such as the epidemic situation after hard construction in recent years, and achieved the completion and operation of a number of major flagship projects beyond expectations. The large-scale stage of core mineral products is just at the stage when the price of bulk metals is at an all-time high, and the performance is expected to show explosive growth. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 15.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 140.80%, achieving the best performance year in history. It is expected that on this basis, the company is still expected to achieve substantial growth in 2022.
The company extends its strategy and actively arranges the new energy and new material industry promoted by the "double carbon" policy
We believe that 2021 is the key year for the company to achieve strategic extension. In addition to the rapid increase in the output of the original advantageous minerals such as gold, copper and zinc mines, and the continuous production of three world-class copper mines, namely kamoa kakura copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, peji copper gold mine in Serbia and Julong copper mine in Tibet, the company also completed the M & A of the world-class high-grade 3Q lithium salt lake project in Argentina and officially entered the new energy metal track. 3Q lithium salt lake project has large resources (LCE equivalent total resources of about 7.63 million tons, lithium ion concentration boundary of 400mg / L), high grade, low impurities, good mining conditions and great production expansion potential. The first phase of the project with an annual output of 20000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate has been started and is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2023; In addition, the project will simultaneously carry out the feasibility study of phase II project this year, and strive to start in 2023 to expand the annual capacity of lithium carbonate to 4 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 tons. In addition, in the annual report, the company also emphasized that it would vigorously promote the rapid transformation of resource advantages to economic and social benefits, fully promote and accelerate the breaking of the construction of 3q lithium salt lake heavy project in Argentina, and promote the contribution increment of electrolytic copper foil, lithium iron phosphate, hydrogen energy and other investment projects to form a synergistic effect. We believe that the company has achieved strategic extension in 2021, and 2022 is expected to be a key year for the company to make breakthroughs in lithium battery new energy materials and open up new growth space.
Risk warning: the construction progress of the project does not meet expectations; The sales price of mineral products did not meet expectations.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 2551 / 261.9/265.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.3% / 2.7% / 1.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 227.2/25.8/26.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44.9% / 10.4% / 7.2%; Diluted EPS is 0.86/0.95/1.02 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 13 / 12 / 11x. Through multi angle valuation, it is concluded that the reasonable valuation range of the company is between 15.53-16.31 yuan, which has about 35% - 42% space relative to the current stock price, and the corresponding total market value is between 408.9-429.4 billion yuan. We believe that the company is the core target of China's non-ferrous listed companies, with rich mineral resources reserves, accelerating internationalization process, strategic extension, active layout of new energy and new materials industry, clear medium and long-term growth path, and is expected to become a world-class international mining enterprise in the future and maintain the "buy" rating.
