\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 007 Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) )
Matters:
The company released the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue was 4.436 billion yuan (- 11.69%), the attributable net profit was 1.299 billion yuan (- 19.48%), and the attributable net profit after deduction was 1.201 billion yuan (- 18.71%). Dividend plan: 2.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
Blood products are rising steadily, and supply and demand are in equilibrium
After the direct impact of the epidemic subsided, blood products entered a stable and rising state. In 2021, the company’s slurry collection volume reached more than 1000 tons, and the slurry collection volume and slurry input volume increased. The company’s blood products business achieved a revenue of 2.598 billion yuan (+ 0.25%), including albumin sales of 1.011 billion yuan (+ 5.68%), Jing Bing sales of 709 million yuan (- 13.98%), and other blood products such as eight factors sales of 878 million yuan (+ 8.33%). At present, the supply and demand pattern of blood products market is in a balanced state, and the competition pattern of major varieties such as albumin has not changed. In this case, the price of blood products is relatively stable. We estimate that the decrease of 1.86pp in gross profit margin may be related to the change of batch issuance volume.
Influenza vaccine “crash” covid-19 vaccine, Q4 sales decreased
Generally, the second half of the year is the centralized sales period of influenza vaccine, but 2021q4 coincides with the peak of covid-19 vaccine for adults and children. On the one hand, covid-19 vaccination will occupy the schedule of influenza vaccination. On the other hand, after covid-19 vaccination, people’s willingness to vaccinate again will also be reduced. Due to the combined effect of two factors, the company’s sales of influenza vaccine encountered obstacles in Q4.
The company’s vaccine sector achieved a revenue of 1.825 billion yuan (- 24.63%) and a gross profit margin of 88.20% (- 1.41pp). Due to the “collision” with covid-19 vaccine, the company realized a revenue of 1.075 billion yuan (- 44.88%) and a net profit of 227 million yuan (- 62.33%) in 2021q4. There is a certain gap between the number of influenza vaccination shots and previous expectations.
We believe that the decline in the company’s influenza vaccine sales is not long-term sustainable. As the vaccination of covid-19 vaccine becomes more regular in the future, its crowding out effect on influenza vaccine will be weakened. In February 2022, the company obtained the marketing license for the children’s dosage form of tetravalent influenza vaccine, which also opened up a local blue ocean market for the company.
Maintain a “recommended” rating. Considering the industry trend and the dilution of attributable net profit brought by the separate listing of Hualan vaccine company, the EPS forecast for 2022204 is adjusted and added to be 0.81, 0.90 and 0.99 yuan (the original forecast was 1.26 and 1.44 yuan for 20222023). This forecast does not include the one-time impact on the profit statement caused by the separate listing of Hualan vaccine company, and maintains the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the supply and demand of blood products in China has changed from shortage to balance, and the competitive pressure has increased; Product research and development is a high-risk and high-yield behavior, which has the possibility of failure; Blood products other than albumin need academic promotion, which may affect the profit level of the company.
