\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
Key points
Event: in 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 801 million yuan and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 770 million yuan, reversing losses year-on-year. 21q4 company deducted 550 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company, reversing losses year-on-year, with a month on month increase of + 419%.
Comments:
The inventory income of lithium carbonate and the high popularity of lithium iron phosphate drive the company’s net profit per ton. The company’s performance exceeded expectations mainly due to: (1) the rapid rise in the price of Q4 lithium carbonate, the rise in the company’s selling price, and the company’s low-cost inventory, which led to the increase of the company’s gross profit margin from 23.4% of Q3 to 34.5% of Q4, and the net profit margin from 11.3% of Q3 to 21.7% of Q4, with a significant increase in the net profit per ton. The company’s net profit per ton of lithium iron phosphate cathode Q4 was 15200 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 10600 yuan / ton compared with Q3. (2) The new capacity of lithium iron phosphate cathode of the company will be released, the new capacity of Qujing will be released in mid-2021, and 21q4 will contribute to the capacity increment. In 2021, the output of lithium iron phosphate cathode of the company was 98000 tons, the sales volume was 91000 tons, and the sales volume of Q4 was 37000 tons, which was 50% higher than Q3. (3) Cost control and scale effect.
The company’s production capacity layout is accelerated, bound to major customers and grow together. Qujing lintie and Qujing Defang phase I lithium iron phosphate cathode capacity will be gradually released in 2021, Qujing Defang phase II 40000 tons / year will be put into operation in July 2021, and the company’s capacity will reach 120000 tons / year by the end of 2021. Considering 80000 T / a of cooperation between Yibin and Ningde, 100000 t / a of joint venture with Yiwei and 50000 T / a of subsequent independent implementation, up to now, the total capacity of lithium iron phosphate cathode of the company has been planned to reach 350000 T / A. In the first half of 2022, the tight supply and demand of lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue, and the expansion of the company’s production capacity is expected to drive the growth of the company’s performance.
The new phosphate positive electrode and lithium supplement reflect the company’s technical iteration ability and contribute to the second growth curve. On January 6, 2022, the company announced the production expansion plan of 330000 tons of new phosphate cathode materials, with a total investment of about 7.5 billion yuan. The construction will be completed within 24 months after obtaining the land. After the company expanded the production of 100000 tons of new phosphate cathode materials in September 2021, the company continued to increase the scale, and the industrialization of new products accelerated, reflecting the company’s differentiated technical advantages and iterative ability. In addition, 25000 tons of lithium replenishing agent expanded by the company in 2021 is expected to be put into operation in 2023q1.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) is a leading enterprise of lithium iron phosphate materials in China. With long cycle life, low cost and differentiated products, liquid phase lithium iron phosphate is a core supplier of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, which will fully benefit from the rapid development of automobile electrification and energy storage industry. Considering the accelerated development of the lithium iron phosphate industry and the gradual release of the company’s new production capacity, fine tune the company’s net profit forecast from 2022 to 2023 (fine tune – 4% / + 4%) and add a 24-year forecast of RMB 1387 / 19.962753 billion respectively (considering equity incentive expenses), corresponding to pe36 / 25 / 18x, maintaining the “buy in” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, technical route change risk, policy risk and intensified competition risk.
