\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 298 Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) )
Core view
Event: the company released its annual report for 21 years. In the past 21 years, the company realized an operating revenue of 10.675 billion yuan / + 19.50%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.309 billion yuan / - 4.59%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.060 billion yuan / - 13.14%; 2) In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 3.081 billion yuan / + 22.91%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 291 million yuan / - 19.06%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 161 million yuan / - 41.01%. The revenue was in line with the expectation, and the profit was slightly lower than the previous market expectation.
Throughout the year, the revenue growth remained stable, and the rising costs of molasses, energy and shipping dragged down the profit margin. 1) On the revenue side, the company has achieved an operating revenue of 10.675 billion yuan / + 19.50% in 21 years, including 7.984 billion yuan / + 15.10% (price increase + 3.43%, volume increase + 11.28%); 2) On the profit side, the gross profit margin of the company in 21 years was 27.34% / -6.66pct, of which the gross profit margin of yeast and deep-processing products was 33.02% / -6.64pct. The decline of gross profit margin was mainly due to the rise of molasses, auxiliary materials, energy and other costs; In addition, the rise in shipping costs / RMB appreciation affected profits of more than 150 million / 100 million respectively, totaling more than 250 million.
From the perspective of 21q4, the change of business structure is the main reason for lowering the gross profit margin. It is estimated that the actual gross profit margin has increased, which is expected to be mainly due to the effect of price increase. 1) On the revenue side, the company's revenue of yeast and deep-processing products was 2.026 billion yuan / + 7.92%, and the growth rate decreased month on month. It is expected that this is due to the high base, the company's relatively high price increase in Q4 in the 21st year, and the price increase range is slightly higher than that of competitors. However, with the further price increase of competitors in early 22 and the corresponding market measures taken by the company, we expect this influencing factor to be improved. 2) In terms of profit, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 21.80% in Q4, q3-2.77pct month on month. The lower than expected gross profit margin is mainly due to the change of product structure: ① the revenue of 21q4 yeast products accounts for 65.91% / month on month -12.48pct, and the sugar making business with low gross profit margin accounts for 18.55% / month on month -12.10pct. The change of business structure is expected to reduce the gross profit margin by 4pct. ② If excluding the influence of product structure change, it is judged that the gross profit margin has improved month on month, which is expected to be mainly due to the price increase effect - the average price of 21q4 yeast and deep-processing products is 25200 yuan / ton, vs21q1-q3 is 23900 yuan / ton, and the price increases by 5.4%, which is expected to be due to the price increase effect; ③ On the cost side, the company's 21q4 cost pressure has increased compared with 21q3, because shipping, energy costs and other quarter on quarter still show an upward trend; The RMB also appreciated month on month.
In the 22-year outlook, the company plans to achieve a revenue of RMB 12.617 billion / + 18.18% and a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 1.372 billion / + 4.85%, corresponding to a net interest rate attributable to the parent of 10.87%. We believe that the company's revenue target is more likely to be achieved because: 1) yeast and deep processing business is expected to achieve 10-20% growth driven by volume increase (expected to reach double digits) and price increase (expected to reach large single digits). 2) Food raw material factory contributes additional revenue: the company's health food raw material intelligent factory was officially put into operation on February 15, 22, and is expected to contribute to the company's revenue in 22 years. The profit target is relatively conservative considering the rise of raw material cost in 22 years, the high shipping cost, depreciation and amortization and other factors.
In the medium and long term, the development space is worth imagining, and the profit side is optimistic about the subsequent elastic release. On the revenue side, the company raised its revenue target of 15-17 billion in the 14th five year plan to 20 billion, and the long-term space is worth imagining; On the profit side, on the one hand, if the subsequent shipping costs and RMB exchange rate return to normal, it is expected to contribute nearly 20% of the profit elasticity; On the other hand, the company has increased the project investment and use proportion of hydrolyzed sugar since 21 years. In the future, it is planned that the proportion of hydrolyzed sugar in the company's raw materials will reach more than 50%, and the cost side pressure is expected to be relieved.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering that there is a certain promotion transition in the price increase of the company and the price of molasses rebounded after the festival, the dilution of fixed increase is not considered for the time being. The EPS forecast of the company for 22-24 years is adjusted to 1.86/2.34/2.69 yuan (2.09/2.38 yuan in the previous 22-23 years), and the historical valuation method is used to give a valuation of 33 times in 22 years (taking the average of nearly three years), corresponding to the target price of 61.38 yuan, maintaining the "buy rating".
Risk tips
The price rise fell short of expectations, the cost rose sharply, the centralized production capacity investment brought significant depreciation, the production capacity investment was less than expected, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the exchange rate fluctuated
