\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 30.167 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 8.67%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.34%; In 2021, after deducting the impact of land compensation, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.719 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.53%. Among them, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 3.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.73%; Net profit attributable to parent company -455 million yuan.
The sales volume maintained steady growth, the high-end process accelerated, and the ton price rose steadily. In 2021, the quarterly revenue of Q1-Q4 increased by 41.87% / – 0.24% / – 3.01% / 1.73% year-on-year. In 21 years, the sales volume of beer reached 7.93 million kiloliters (+ 1.38%), and the ton price was 374183 yuan / ton (+ 7.03%). By product, Qingdao’s main brand / other brands (Laoshan) achieved revenue of 19.796/9.877 billion yuan (+ 14.75% / – 2.08%), sales of 4.33/3.6 million kiloliters (+ 11.62% / – 8.68%), and ton price of 4572 / 2744 yuan (+ 2.83% / + 7.16%). In recent years, the company has accelerated the layout of high-end and ultra-high-end fields. In 21 years, the sales volume of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) high-end products has reached 520000 kiloliters (+ 14.2%), including white beer and other products. By channel, the sales volume of ready to drink market / non ready to drink market accounted for 44.4% / 55.6% respectively in 21 years. Under the influence of the epidemic, the demand of ready to drink market fell. The company relies on dealers and professional platforms for in-depth distribution, while building and continuously expanding the three-dimensional e-commerce channel of “official flagship store + official mall + online retailer + distribution franchise store”. In addition, the company strives to build a new highland of high-end beer sales through tsingtao1903 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) bar. As a sponsor of the Winter Olympic Games, the company created activities such as tsingtao1903 bar with ice and snow theme and national tide gathering bar with ice and snow, realizing Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , multi-channel and multi scene consumption touch.
The cost increases, the gross profit margin is under pressure, the expenses are effectively controlled, and the profit increases against the trend. The profits of Q1-Q4 in 2021 increased by 90.26% / 5.74% / 6.43% / 41.37% year-on-year. The sharp increase in profits in the fourth quarter was confirmed by land expropriation compensation. In 21 years, the company achieved gross profit margin of 36.71% (- 3.71 PCTs), sales / Management (including R & D expenses) / Finance / R & D expense ratio of 13.58% / 5.71% / – 0.81% / 0.10% respectively, year-on-year change of -4.38/0.41/0.89/0.02 PCTs, and net profit margin of 10.79% (+ 2.41 PCTs). This year, with the increase of the cost of the beer industry, the gross profit margin declined. However, by increasing sales volume, adjusting structure, improving cost-effectiveness, actively increasing revenue and expenditure, reducing cost and increasing efficiency, and taking multiple measures at the same time, the company has achieved sustained and significant growth in business performance. Looking forward to the next 22 years, with the company’s continuous price increase by region and product, conducting cost pressure, timely reserving and locking the price to deal with the price increase of raw materials, upgrading the structure and improving the cost efficiency, the ton price rises steadily, and the profit elasticity can be released.
Under high-quality development, the product structure and management efficiency are continuously optimized to promote the accelerated release of the company’s performance. The company’s high-end strategy is becoming clearer and more determined to improve high-end and efficiency. On the one hand, the company accelerated the transformation and upgrading to high-end products represented by tinned beer and refined beer, and continuously expanded the medium and high-end market share with high-quality channels. On the other hand, by further improving the management efficiency and actively promoting continuous development, the cost investment efficiency has been continuously improved, opening up space for the improvement of the company’s profitability.
Profit forecast: due to the cost pressure of raw materials and other factors, it is expected that the company’s revenue in 20222023 will be adjusted from 325.08/345.97 to 323.36/34.418 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.19% / 6.44%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be adjusted from 34.40/41.86 to 33.39/41.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.83% / 25.70%, and the EPS is 2.45/3.08 yuan. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 31.9/25.4 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: price fluctuation of raw materials, intensified competition in high-end market, repeated covid-19 epidemic and other risks.
