\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 754 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) )
The operation was stable throughout the year, and overseas losses were significantly reduced. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 11.34 billion yuan (YoY + 14.6%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 101 million yuan (yoy-8.7%). In 2021q4, the single quarter revenue was 2.99 billion yuan (YoY + 3.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.85 million yuan (positive year-on-year). In 2021, the revenue of domestic hotels was 8.8 billion yuan (YoY + 12.7%), deducting 366 million yuan of non parent net profit; The overseas revenue was 2.29 billion yuan (YoY + 24.6%), benefiting from the opening of overseas hotels and a significant reduction in losses. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was – 58.11 million euros (a year-on-year decrease of 47.4 million euros).
The annual cost control was stable, and the cost rate in Q4 increased due to the epidemic. For the whole year of 2021, the overall gross profit margin was 34.2% (YoY + 8.5pct), mainly due to the increase of revenue. The sales expense ratio was 7.8% (YoY + 1PCT) and the management expense ratio was 20.5% (yoy-2.7pct). 2021q4 single quarter: the gross profit margin was 37.8% (Q3 + 0.99pct month on month), the management expense rate was 21.9% (Q3 increased by 3.9pct month on month), the financial expense rate was 4.1% (Q3 decreased by 0.21pct month on month), and the epidemic income decreased to the expense rate increased.
The same store performance of the hotel is still lower than that before the epidemic, and the occupancy rate in Q4 is down year-on-year. In 2021, the RevPAR of domestic hotels in the same store was 134.87 yuan, down from – 17% in the same period in 2019; The occupancy rate OCC was 64.65%, compared with -10.8pct in the same period in 2019, and the average house price ADR was 208.61 yuan, compared with -3.1% in the same period in 2019. Among them, RevPAR of mid-range / economy hotels in the same store recovered to 83% / 76.6% in the same period of 2019 respectively. 2021q4 single quarter: the RevPAR of the overall hotels in mainland China was 133.91 yuan (year-on-year – 11.2%, recovering to 86.4% in the same period in 2019), mainly due to the year-on-year decline of 11.76pct and 10.63pct in the OCC of middle-end and economy hotels respectively. In addition, the ADR of middle-end and economy hotels exceeded the same period in 2020. Thanks to ADR + 14.8%, OCC + 18.75pct and RevPAR + 77.8% year-on-year in 2020, which recovered to 81.57% in the same period in 2019
The proportion of mid-range / franchised stores increased, and the strategy continued to advance. In 2021, there were 1207 hotels and 10613 hotels, including 5517 mid-range hotels, accounting for 52%; 9692 franchise stores, accounting for 91.32%; In 2022, the company plans to open and contract 1500 and 2500 hotels respectively, and the medium and high-end / asset light strategy continues to be promoted.
Profit forecast and investment rating: according to STR data, from February 23 to March 19 this year, the occupancy rate of China’s economy / mid-range hotels fell by – 19.4/16.8pct year-on-year. The company also expects an operating revenue of 13.6-14.2 billion yuan (YoY + 20-25%) in 2022, including 9% – 14% and 65% – 70% growth in mainland China and overseas respectively. The repeated epidemic in Q1 this year may put pressure on the profit side. In the long run, we continue to be optimistic about the company’s medium and high-end expansion potential and the performance flexibility brought by the improvement of operating efficiency. Now, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 is adjusted to RMB 830 / 1.95 billion (the previous value is RMB 1.40 / 1.96 billion), the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is RMB 2.35 billion, and the CAGR of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 is 68.5%. The current stock price corresponds to dynamic pe64 / 27 / 22 times, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk warning: the repeated epidemic situation will cause economic fluctuations, and the expansion of operation & Hotel is not as expected by the company.
