\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
Event overview. On March 29, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021, with annual revenue of 10.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 911 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 183.81%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 808 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 205.79%, which was consistent with the previous performance express.
The performance of Q4 in 21 years was brilliant. Revenue and net profit: the company’s 2021q4 revenue was 4.008 billion yuan, an increase of 176.62% and a ring increase of 50.72%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 362 million yuan, an increase of 263.81% and a ring increase of 59.08%, and the net profit attributable to the parent after deduction was 339 million yuan, an increase of 380.87% and a ring increase of 65.74%. Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin in 2021q4 was 16.67%, with an increase of 3.38pct and a ring increase of 2.04pct. Net interest rate: the net interest rate of 2021q4 was 9.00%, with an increase of 2.21pct and a ring increase of 0.46pct.
The self supply rate increased + new integration, and the net profit per ton remained high. The company’s sales volume of three yuan cathode in 21 years is 52300 tons, and the net profit per ton is about 15300 yuan / ton. We expect that the shipment volume in 22 years is about 12 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 000 tons, and the net profit per ton is 1 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 000 tons / yuan. The profitability of the company’s products has been continuously strengthened, mainly due to: 1) the self supply rate of precursors has been continuously improved, and the self supply rate of precursors has reached 30% in 21 years. We expect that the self supply rate of precursors will be further improved in 22 years; 2) The new base will use a new generation of production line design and equipment system, increase the single line capacity by another 30-40%, and gradually realize the green power consumption and reduce the comprehensive manufacturing cost; 3) The new integration strategy has been gradually implemented, and precursor agreements have been signed with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) and others to reduce the cost of the supply chain; Invest in the acquisition of 70% equity of Fenggu energy conservation, strengthen the engineering and technical strength of production line design and equipment development, and realize the coordinated industrial layout.
Increase production and consolidate the leading position. The company issued an additional 6.068 billion yuan to be used in the “Xiantao phase I lithium battery cathode material project with an annual output of 100000 tons” “Zunyi phase 2-2 lithium battery cathode material project with an annual output of 34000 tons”, “Zhongzhou phase 1-2 lithium battery cathode material project with an annual output of 15000 tons”, “2025 power lithium battery material comprehensive base (phase I) project” and “engineering equipment phase I project” “The company’s production capacity has reached 120000 tons / year by the end of 21 years. In 22 years, with the completion of the South Korean base and the new production capacity of Hubei Xiantao base, the company’s production capacity is expected to reach 250000 tons. With the implementation of fixed increase projects, the long-term production capacity in 25 years is expected to exceed Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons.
The ternary material system is fully covered, and the layout of cutting-edge technology is overweight. The company’s ultra-high nickel system above ni90 has realized batch supply, and the updated and iterative production line has good compatibility with NCMA Quaternary, NCA ternary, single crystal and polycrystalline. The company has maintained its R & D advantages and made continuous technological breakthroughs in the fields of solid-state battery cathode, oxide solid electrolyte and sodium ion battery cathode, lithium rich manganese base cathode, spinel nickel lithium manganate and so on. In 21 years, the company has achieved tons of production experience of ferromanganese Prussian white sodium ion battery materials. It is expected that it may cooperate with catl in the field of sodium ion battery cathode in the future.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2114, 2661 and 3.219 billion, with an increase of 132%, 26% and 21% at the same time, corresponding to the valuation of 30, 24 and 19 times PE. Considering that the company is the leader of high nickel ternary industry, with rapid capacity growth, we maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The speed of production expansion was lower than expected.
