\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 066 Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) )
Core view
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 19%, and the performance recovered Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) released the annual report of 2021, and the company achieved a revenue of 23.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19%. Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2%. The gross profit margin increased slightly and the net profit margin improved. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 18.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1pct, and the net profit margin was 2.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3pct. Q4 gross profit margin was 21.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8pct and a month on month increase of 0.3pct; The net interest rate was 4.8%, up 0.4pct year-on-year and 2.7pct month on month.
The cost rate decreased slightly. In 2021, the company’s four rate was 17.3%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1pct, of which the rates of management / R & D / sales / financial expenses were 10.56/6.72/7.29/ -0.52pct respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.44 / -0.43/0.13/ -0.86pct. The financial expenses changed greatly, which was mainly affected by the exchange gains and losses of foreign currency evaluation.
The net profit of single vehicle stabilized. In terms of net profit of single vehicle, the net profit of single vehicle in 2021 was 18000 yuan, an increase of 3000 yuan year-on-year. The situation fluctuated greatly by quarter. Benefiting from the simultaneous rise in the volume and price of the company’s new energy passenger cars, the net profit of the company’s Q4 single car was 30000 yuan, an increase of 6000 yuan year-on-year and 18000 yuan month on month.
Large and medium-sized customers are leading, and the industry has entered a weak recovery. With the digestion of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) overdraft effect and the bottom of the epidemic, the suppressed demand will continue to release, and the industry is expected to usher in an inflection point. Under “carbon neutralization”, the export market space of overseas electric buses is large; With the large-scale application of 5g and the expansion of business model, the urban microcirculation public transport market is expected to expand. In the short term, as the industry stabilizes, the company’s profitability is expected to recover. The electric vehicles of the company have global competitiveness and are optimistic about the export business in the medium and long term; In the long run, we are optimistic about the expansion of the four-dimensional profit model evolved by the bus industry from production manufacturers to integrated solution providers.
Risk tip: subsidies continue to decline, the sales volume of the bus industry does not meet expectations, and the appreciation of RMB affects the export price competitiveness of buses
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. Taking into account the disturbance of the epidemic, the rise in the price of raw materials and the reduction of bus trips, we lowered the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent company will be RMB 880 / 11.8 / 1.77 billion from 2022 to 2024 (the previous profit forecast was RMB 2.03 / 2.56 billion from 2022 to 2023). We give Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) 2025 times PE in 2023, and the corresponding reasonable price range in 2023 is RMB 10.4-13.0 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. In the medium and long term, with the intelligent business model everywhere, the urban microcirculation bus market is expected to expand and the company’s valuation center is expected to improve.
