\u3000\u30006 Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) 00016)
Data overview
Net profit attributable to parent company in 2021a was + 0.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was + 5.1pc month on month; Revenue was – 8.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 0.1pc month on month; ROE6. 6%； ROA0. 50%。 The non-performing rate was 1.79%, unchanged month on month; The provision coverage rate is 145%.
Core view
1. Recovery of profit growth. In 2021, China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) net profit attributable to parent company increased by + 0.2% year-on-year and + 5.1pc month on month. It achieved positive growth for the first time since 2020h1, which was better than the market expectation. Mainly due to the stabilization of asset quality pressure, the drag of impairment loss has subsided. In 21q4, the impairment loss in a single quarter was – 30% year-on-year and the growth rate was – 27PC month on month. Looking ahead, we need to continue to pay attention to the progress of business model transformation and asset quality pressure digestion.
2. The interest margin decreased month on month. 21q4 single quarter interest margin (at the beginning and end of the period) was – 22bp month on month, mainly dragged down by the decline of asset return. (1) On the asset side, the return on assets in the single quarter of 21q4 was -19bp to 3.88% month on month. It is speculated that the adjustment of risk preference is due to the active increase in the provision of low-risk and low yield loans; At the same time, Q4 strengthened the disposal of non-performing loans, resulting in the deduction of some overdue loan interests. (2) On the liability side, the debt cost ratio of 21q4 single quarter rose to 2.48% month on month + 5bp, due to the decline in the proportion of deposits and the rise in the cost of deposits. 21q4 deposits were – 1.3% month on month, 0.5pc slower than total liabilities; The deposit cost ranges from 217bp to 217h2 + 21.2%. Looking forward to the future, affected by the adjustment of business structure and the downward pressure on industrial loan interest rates, it is expected that the interest margin will still be under marginal pressure.
3. The bad was stabilized month on month. (1) The bad was stable on a month on month basis At the end of China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) 21q4, the non-performing rate and attention rate were flat month on month, – 34bp to 1.79% and 2.85% respectively, and the non-performing rate decreased significantly by 89bp year-on-year. The overdue rate increased to 2.17% compared with 21h1 + 12bp. It is speculated that it is due to the stricter recognition of overdue credit cards and the impact of some real estate enterprises. Looking forward to the future, under the disturbance of real estate risk, the asset quality may face certain pressure. However, considering the strong disposal efforts in recent years, it is expected that the non-performing assets will remain stable in 2022. (2) Exposure disclosure China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) 2021 annual report first disclosed real estate exposure. The credit exposure to public real estate is 473.4 billion, accounting for 7% of the total assets, including 360.3 billion loans to public real estate, accounting for 9%; Off balance sheet consignment exposure is only 9.6 billion, accounting for 0.5% of AUM.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 2.21% / 3.72% / 3.95% year-on-year, corresponding to bps12.5% 61 / 14.28/16.00 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 0.30/0.27/0.24 times of Pb valuation. Give the target valuation price 22 years pb0 35x, the target price is 4.39 yuan / share, and the current price corresponds to 22-year pb0.5 yuan 30x, 15% of the current price space.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and substantial exposure of adverse.
