The increase of installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate directly drives the demand of upstream lithium carbonate.
The two founders of the new power of new energy to build cars jointly "attacked" the rising price of lithium carbonate.
"We have conducted in-depth research on all upstream links and believe that there are more speculative factors for the current price rise of lithium carbonate, and there is not such a big gap between supply and demand..." Li Bin, chairman of Weilai automobile, said at the fourth quarter and annual financial report meeting.
On March 26, at the China electric vehicle hundred people's meeting, Li Xiang, CEO of ideal automobile, said that the cost of lithium carbonate may be 3 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 yuan, which should not be so expensive. This is a huge profit. But take oil as an example, the price of oil is not based on the cost. "Lithium carbonate will be the same as oil, and it will no longer be based on the cost."
Lithium carbonate, which has risen from 40000 yuan to 520000 yuan per ton, bears the brunt.
The price formation mechanism of bulk commodities is complex. The core and long-term price "anchoring" role is the relationship between supply and demand, and the secondary factors include cost support and market expectation.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter reviewed the rising trend of lithium carbonate since the second half of 2020 and found that taking 2021 as an example, the annual output of new energy vehicles was 3.677 million, an increase of 152.5% over the previous year. In the same period, China's output of lithium carbonate was 230400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.97%.
lithium price resumption: the accelerated price rise is driven by shortage
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter observed that the rise in lithium prices dates back to a year ago, when the price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 78000 yuan / ton, which is the starting point of this round of soaring prices.
As early as March 5, 2021, 21st Century Capital Research Institute has clearly pointed out that "judging by medium and long-term industry supply and demand, product price operation, production cost and other factors, the arrival of lithium price inflection point has been very clear."
Since then, the penetration rate of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has increased rapidly. The annual penetration rate was 5.8% in 2020, and has increased to more than 22% by December 2021.
At the same time, in 2021, the new energy vehicle industry also has a significant feature, that is, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeds that of ternary battery, and the growth rate is significantly higher than that of ternary battery.
Relevant data show that in 2021, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery accumulated 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 142.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery accumulated 79.8gwh, accounting for 51.7% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 227.4%.
In terms of the source of lithium salt, lithium iron phosphate corresponds to iron phosphate and lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide corresponds to ternary battery.
In terms of market price performance, due to the difference in growth rate at the demand side, the market price of lithium hydroxide with higher value is lower than that of lithium carbonate since last year, which shows that the relationship between supply and demand has a great impact on product prices.
"Each ton of lithium iron phosphate needs to consume 0.96 tons of iron phosphate and 0.25 tons of lithium carbonate." Baichuan Yingfu lithium salt industry analyst said.
In other words, the increase in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate directly drives the demand for upstream lithium carbonate.
In contrast, lithium carbonate supply. In 2021, although China's capacity utilization rate has improved, according to the statistical caliber of different institutions, the output growth rate is far behind the growth rate of the above-mentioned installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate.
According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the output of lithium carbonate in China was 240000 tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%. According to the data tracked by Baichuan Yingfu, the national output of lithium carbonate in 2021 was 230400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 32.97%.
No matter which statistical caliber is adopted, it can be seen that there is a huge gap between the incremental supply of lithium carbonate and the above-mentioned installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery and the output growth of new energy vehicles.
The gap between supply and demand will be filled through partial imports.
Comparing the import data of lithium carbonate, it can be seen that in August, October and January 2021, China's monthly import of lithium carbonate exceeded 10000 tons, which was the peak in the same period in history.
The higher the import volume, the tighter the supply of lithium carbonate in China and the more intense the price rise.
The same is true of the actual market performance. In August 2021, the price of lithium carbonate ended sideways, and the price of electric carbon in China rose from 90000 yuan / ton to nearly 200000 yuan / ton in October; In January 2022, the electric carbon rose again from around 300000 yuan to more than 500000 yuan so far.
In terms of China's supply side, during the accelerated rise of lithium carbonate, it was a seasonal decline in the output of China's salt lakes due to weather reasons, which exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand.
Under the resumption of trading, we can clearly see the contradiction between the supply of raw materials in the upstream and the growth of demand in the downstream. At the same time, when China's capacity utilization decreases and the import volume increases, the price of lithium carbonate will also accelerate.
cost support and lack of "market-oriented transaction"
The relationship between supply and demand determines the operation trend of bulk commodities, and factors such as cost support, market trading and psychological expectation can not be ignored.
The saying that "the cost of lithium carbonate may be 3 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 yuan" is not consistent with the actual situation. The cost of 3 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 yuan is only applicable to China's Salt Lake production enterprises.
Such enterprises have inherent cost advantages, but their capacity share in China is relatively limited, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) plus the new capacity of 20000 tons, China can only rank fourth.
China's lithium carbonate production capacity ranks first in three categories, namely Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (43000 tons), Jiangxi Nanshi lithium battery (40000 tons) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (35000 tons).
In terms of the composition of raw materials, the main raw materials of "two giants of lithium industry" last year came from Australian mines, and the raw materials of Nanshi lithium battery came from Jiangxi lithium mica mines.
Therefore, when measuring the industry cost, it is unreasonable to use the lowest standard of Salt Lake production cost.
In terms of imported lithium concentrate, the cost side rise of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is also very obvious.
"The rising price of lithium salt drives the continuous rise of the price of upstream lithium concentrate. The price of lithium concentrate has increased from 405 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to 2560 US dollars / ton at the end of the year, and the latest sales price has exceeded 2800 US dollars / ton." Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) 3 the annual report released on the evening of 28 pointed out.
The rise in the price of lithium concentrate has significantly supported the selling price of lithium salt products.
According to the exchange rate and the proportion of "one ton of lithium carbonate needs to consume 8-9 tons of lithium concentrate", the cost of this item alone will reach 160000 yuan. Combined with the prices of soda ash, sulfuric acid and other auxiliary materials and fuels, the production cost per ton will exceed 200000 yuan.
It should be pointed out that except for a few lithium salt enterprises in China, which can achieve 100% self-sufficiency in lithium concentrate, the vast majority of enterprises are highly dependent on the import of lithium concentrate from Australia. For example, Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) reported to reporters that "the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials of the company is only about 20%
Therefore, the rise in the price of imported lithium concentrate last year has significantly raised the cost side of most lithium salt enterprises in China.
In response to the rapid rise in the price of lithium carbonate in mid March, the competent authorities, including the Ministry of industry and information technology, publicly stated that "we should moderately accelerate the progress of China's resource development and resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding, speculation and speculation.
Guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen cooperation and common development, and promote the return of key raw material prices to rationality. "
As for the lithium salt industry, as a relatively small market, its trade link is significantly smaller than that of more "large" markets such as steel.
"From the perspective of traders contacted, traders with an inventory of more than 30 tons are already large. In many markets, the retail orders available for trading are only single digits, among which the supply of salt lake is relatively common." Qu Lin, an analyst in the lithium salt industry of the business agency, said.
In terms of mainstream lithium carbonate production enterprises, Nanshi lithium battery, which ranked high in the above capacity, has stopped quotation since the second half of last year, mainly because it is "out of stock".
In addition, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned from the investigation that at present, the mainstream large factory lithium carbonate has been basically locked, and there is no more source of goods to be sold to traders.
"When the industry was in a downturn, it was sold to traders to recover funds. However, after the lithium price rebounded in the second half of 2020, all products were supplied to customers in the industrial chain. Even so, the production capacity was still insufficient." A person from a front-line lithium salt factory in China said recently.
Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) people also pointed out that the company's lithium salt products are mainly long-term association, and Chinese customers include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , AVIC lithium battery and beiteri.
The supply of large factories is mainly supplied to customers in the industrial chain, and the quantity of lithium carbonate through market-oriented transaction is very limited.
The low number of transactions leads to insufficient market depth and thickness, and the "seller's market" has obvious characteristics, which also helps the price of lithium salt rise to a certain extent.
solution: "take a stake in the upstream" or a way out
It is undeniable that lithium salt enterprises are at the peak of the business cycle at this stage.
Even taking the lithium salt enterprises with the highest cost level and all lithium concentrate raw materials as an example, combined with the current situation of lithium carbonate and cost, their gross profit margin is also more than 60%.
Salt Lake enterprises and some integrated production enterprises of "lithium ore + lithium salt" may have a gross profit margin of 80% to 90%. In the field of bulk raw materials, this is a very rare profit level.
However, the good day now is the result of upstream enterprises using "life" in previous years.
The most typical case is Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) .
After listing, the company has successively completed the equity acquisition of talison greenbushes mine, the mine with the largest production capacity in Australia, and sqm company in Chile, and finally realized the layout of major spodumene and salt lakes in the world.
However, when acquiring the equity of sqm company, it once fell into a debt crisis due to the decline of industry prosperity and the obstruction of follow-up financing. It was not until 2021 when the war investment Australian Igo company was introduced and part of talison's equity was transferred that the company got a breather.
Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , although the M & A of external lithium resources is not as radical as Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , it has also won part of the equity of Marion mountain, the second largest production capacity in Australia, and signed an underwriting agreement in recent years.
Without the layout of the above "two giants of lithium industry" at the bottom of the industry, the problem of "neck sticking" of China's lithium concentrate will only be more prominent than now, and the actual output of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will hardly reach the current level.
So, should the downstream electric vehicle enterprises also reflect on themselves and lack the judgment and preparation for the price rise of raw materials?
"Our car specification chip and operating system are all our weaknesses, lacking core and soul, especially at the car specification level." Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee, said at the aforementioned forum.
He also pointed out that in the past, automobile factories basically ignored these things and basically handed them over to primary supporting suppliers. Now I think there are no people just shouting and taking action there. Foreign auto factories have invested in TSMC to increase production capacity
Can the same idea be used for reference when changing to the lithium battery industry chain?
For example, downstream power battery and vehicle enterprises can obtain a more stable source of raw materials by participating in upstream lithium mining enterprises?
As far as vehicle enterprises are concerned, only Byd Company Limited(002594) . After arranging the resources of Chaerhan and Zabuye salt lakes, it plans to invest another 3 billion yuan in shares Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Although there are some problems in the short-term release of lithium salt capacity jointly built by the company, in the long run, the stability of its raw material supply chain will far exceed that of its Chinese counterparts.
As for the new force car manufacturing enterprises, it may be due to their lack of strength, or the judgment of the upstream industry is not in place, and there has been no substantive action so far.
Of course, the above-mentioned scheme can only play a "palliative" effect. In essence, it is to compete for share from the existing "stock" of lithium salt market.
In contrast, the solution of "treating both symptoms and root causes" requires the accelerated release of the supply side, and alleviates the current contradiction between supply and demand through supply "increment", so as to realize the rebalancing of supply and demand of lithium carbonate and other products, the rational return of price, or it is logical.
