Zhitong tips:
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the repeated impact of the epidemic on the offline consumption of bubble Mart (09992) and the accelerated expansion of competitors may cause diversion, and the net profit forecast of 2022 / 23e was lowered to 1.224/1.47 billion yuan.
Bank of America Securities said that it was very optimistic about the coal price, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (01088) was one of the first choices of the bank. Since the beginning of the year, the rise of coal price has been pleasantly surprised, raising 2022 earnings per share by 3%.
Dahe expects that the new business value of China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (02601) will face the biggest challenge in the first quarter, and the decline will gradually narrow in the following quarters, and the earnings per share forecast for 202223 will be lowered by 14% to 24%.
CICC believes that the repeated epidemic has a certain impact on the East China core market of nongnongshanquan (09633) and the rhythm of goods preparation before the peak season, or increase the pressure of destocking in the peak season, but believes that the company has strong adjustment ability and is still expected to maintain double-digit income growth throughout the year.
Nomura: maintain JD health (06618) “buy” rating target price of HK $82
Nomura maintained the “buy” rating of JD health (06618), with a target price of HK $82. The revenue and profit in the second half of last year were better than expected, 14% higher than the bank’s expectation, and the non IFRS profit doubled to RMB 735 million, far exceeding the expectation.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : maintain the “buy” rating target price of bubble Mart (09992) at HK $41
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that bubble Mart (09992) is a leader in China’s fashion industry. With IP design as the core, it has successfully built a closed-loop ecosystem of design, manufacturing, channels and users. Considering the adjustment of revenue side forecast and the lower profit margin of overseas business with rapid growth compared with Chinese business, the bank lowered the company’s 2022e ~ 23e net profit forecast to 1.2241470 billion yuan (the previous forecast value was 1.468/1.733 billion yuan), increased the 2024e net profit forecast to 1.717 billion yuan, and the current stock price of the company corresponds to the 2022e-24epe multiple of 30x / 25X / 22x. Considering that the company is in the fast-growing industry track and the leading position of the company in the industry, The bank gave the company pe40x in 2022.
Bank of America Securities: the target price of “buy” rating to China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (01088) rose to HK $30
Bank of America Securities raised the coal price of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (01088) in fiscal year 2022 to RMB 870 per ton, and increased the earnings per share of 2022 by 3%. The company will pay 2.54 yuan per share this year, which is equivalent to 100% dividend according to China’s generally accepted accounting standards (GAAP), with a dividend yield of 14%, continuing the high dividend yield of 92% last year, which has become a big surprise. The bank said that it has been very optimistic about coal prices, and the company is one of the first choices of the bank. There are still surprises in the rise of coal prices since the beginning of the year.
Bank of America Securities: the target price of “buy” rating of time angel (06699) was lowered by 60.4% to HK $192
Bank of America Securities said that in view of the weak guidance of time angel (06699), it lowered the sales forecast for 202224 by 2% / 5% / 7%. In addition, considering the company’s further penetration and marketing in low-level cities, it is expected that the slight downward trend of gross profit margin will continue in the next few years. In the conference call after the performance report, the company’s management provided guidance on the 20% growth of shipments this year, and the revenue growth this year will be slightly lower than 20%, far lower than the 32% previously expected by the bank. The management pointed out that since the nature of transparent orthotics is personal needs rather than basic medical needs and the characteristics of advanced technology, the possibility of centralized procurement of drugs is relatively low. Even if it happens, the company’s product comfos for the generation at the end of the year can benefit from the increase in quantity, and the company’s slight dependence on public institutions will avoid this risk.
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (02601) was reduced by several institutions after its performance
Bank of America Securities: the target price of “buy” rating to China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (02601) is reduced to HK $31
Bank of America Securities lowered its new business value forecast of China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (02601) by 25% this year, reflecting weak demand and continuous reform of the distribution team, adding pressure to the business volume, and reduced its profit forecast for next year by 3%, reflecting the reduction of the investment forecast, and the target price was lowered from HK $34 to HK $31. The company’s net profit in fiscal year 2021 was 26.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year, which was in line with the bank’s expectation. The value of new life insurance business decreased by 25% year-on-year to 13.4 billion yuan, and the value profit margin of new business decreased by 15.4 percentage points to 23.5%; Under the same assumptions, due to the change of product structure and weak demand, the value of new business is expected to decrease by 52% year-on-year in the second half of last year. Bank of America Securities believes that the growth of CPIC life insurance is weak, and it is expected that due to the high comprehensive cost ratio this year, the valuation of H shares is not high, which is now equivalent to the predicted market book rate of 0.7 times this year.
Daiwa: downgrade China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (02601) to “hold” target price to HK $20.5
Dahe lowered the rating of China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (02601) from “buy” to “hold”, mainly based on concerns about its capital management and the prospect of new business. Dahe also lowered the forecast of earnings per share in 202223 by 14% to 24%, the forecast of dividend per share by 32% to 35%, and the forecast of new business value by 37% to 40%, reducing the average embedded value return on operations (roev) by 11.9% and the target price by 31.7% to 20.5 from HK $30.
The report said that although the after tax operating profit (OPAT) and net profit had a healthy growth, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and 9% respectively, the dividend per share of CPIC was reduced by 23% last year, which was about 25% lower than the market expectation. The bank believes that the reasons put forward by the management are not convincing, and its behavior weakens the confidence of long-term investors. For this year, the bank expects its after tax operating profit and international financial reporting standards (IFRS) profit to be neither hot nor cold, while the value of new business is weak. The bank expects the new business value to face the greatest challenge in the first quarter, and the decline gradually narrowed in the following quarters.
Credit Suisse: maintaining poly GCL energy’s (03800) “outperforming the market” rating, the target price rose to HK $4.5
Credit Suisse said that due to the rise in the average selling price of polysilicon, poly GCL energy (03800) raised its earnings per share forecast of 9.7% this year; Based on the increase of R & D expenses, the earnings per share forecast for 202324 was lowered by 0.3% to 0.7%. In addition, the valuation of the company is 5 times and 7 times the predicted P / E ratio in 2022 and 2023, which is not high.
According to the report, the net profit of the company last year was 5.1 billion yuan (the same below), turning losses into profits year-on-year. In addition, it was consistent with the earlier estimated net profit of Yingxi of about 5 billion yuan.
The profit contribution of polysilicon business is about 5.5 billion yuan, which is in line with the bank’s expectation. Last year, the total output of polysilicon increased by 41% year-on-year, and the average price rose from 61 yuan per kilogram to 147 yuan. According to the calculation of the bank, the unit profit has been greatly expanded from 4 yuan per kilogram to 66 yuan. Benefiting from the successful reduction of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electric field assets and strong cash flow of polysilicon business, the group’s net debt ratio decreased significantly from 176% in 2020 to 9% last year. Supported by strong Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) demand, the price of polysilicon has been stronger than the market expectation since the beginning of the year. Based on the low polysilicon price base in the first and second quarters of last year, the bank expects the group’s profit momentum to remain strong in the first half of this year.
CICC: maintain nongnongshanquan (09633) “outperform the industry” rating, and the target price is HK $49
CICC maintained nongnongshanquan’s (09633) “outperforming the industry” rating. The current stock price corresponds to 49.1 times / 39.2 times the P / E ratio in 2022 / 23. Due to the company’s outstanding performance in tea drinks, CICC raised its profit forecast for 2022 / 23 by 3.3% / 3.1% to 7.48/9.37 billion yuan; Considering the impact of the epidemic and the price of raw materials, the target price is HK $49, corresponding to 50.5 times the price earnings ratio in 2023 and 29% upward space.
The report said that the repeated 1H22 epidemic had a certain impact on the company’s core market in East China and the rhythm of goods preparation before the peak season, or increased the pressure of destocking in the peak season, but the bank believed that the company had strong adjustment ability and was still expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth throughout the year. Under high oil prices, the prices of pet and other raw materials and transportation costs may continue to remain high in 2022, while the price increase of the industry needs to be observed. The bank expects that the company’s gross profit margin may be more comparable with that in 2019 and still maintain steady growth, and the impact of equity incentive fees may be limited. The bank believes that 2h21 performance confirms the firm core competitive advantage of the company and is optimistic about its long-term development prospects.
