The covid-19 drug track, which was fiercely contested, suddenly changed.
Facing the threatening Omicron ba 2 variant, pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline’s covid-19 antibody therapy sotrovimab is not effective. On March 28 local time, the latest document released by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) shows that eight states in the United States will stop using GlaxoSmithKline covid-19 antibody therapy.
currently, Omicron Ba is highly contagious 2 variant is gradually becoming the most widely spread variant in the world. Once GlaxoSmithKline’s covid-19 antibody therapy is ineffective for this variant, it may lose the competition in the covid-19 drug market in the future
Covid-19 therapeutic drugs will be more and more important in the future anti epidemic, and the market demand will be rapidly enlarged Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) it is estimated that the global oral covid-19 drug market will be billions to tens of billions of dollars, equivalent to nearly 100 billion yuan. It is expected that the annual demand of domestic Chinese medicine (COD) will reach US $1.9 billion, and it is expected to reach US $30 billion in the developed market in the future.
700 billion pharmaceutical giant suspended
Covid-19 antibody therapy, which had been highly expected by the United States, was suddenly stopped.
On Monday, March 28 local time, the latest document released by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) shows that eight states in the United States will stop using GlaxoSmithKline covid-19 antibody therapy, including Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont.
fda’s emergency stop of GlaxoSmithKline covid-19 antibody therapy is behind its impact on Omicron ba The 2 variant may not be valid
The FDA said in a statement that it was highly contagious for Omicron ba For variant 2, the GlaxoSmithKline covid-19 antibody therapy sotrovimab, which was authorized for emergency use in May 2021, may not be effective and is not suitable for Ba that is not sensitive to the drug 2 variant transmission area.
In fact, GlaxoSmithKline’s covid-19 therapy has been questioned before. A related study published in the journal Nature Medicine confirmed the effect of GlaxoSmithKline covid-19 antibody therapy sotrovimab on Omicron ba The effect of 2 variant is poor.
Faced with the doubts of authoritative institutions, GlaxoSmithKline announced on Friday that based on the analysis of all available data (including new live virus data), 500 microgram dose of sotrovimab is unlikely to affect Omicron ba 2 variants are valid.
According to data, GlaxoSmithKline COVID-19 antibody therapy sotrovimab is a SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing monoclonal antibody, which can bind to a epitope of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 (causing SARS virus). This epitope is highly conserved, which may make drug resistance more difficult.
As GlaxoSmithKline’s covid-19 antibody therapy is stopped, the United States may turn to other covid-19 drugs. According to the FDA, bebtelovimab, a drug licensed in February to treat mild to moderate patients, as well as Pfizer’s paxlovid pill and Gilead science’s antiviral drug redcivir, may affect ba 2 variants are valid.
However, GlaxoSmithKline has not abandoned the huge covid-19 drug market. GlaxoSmithKline plans to submit to FDA support for the use of higher doses of sotrovimab in the treatment of Ba 2 variant data.
According to the data, GlaxoSmithKline is a pharmaceutical company based on research and development, which was merged and established by Glaxo Wellcome and strychnic. Both companies have a long history of more than two centuries. After the merger, GlaxoSmithKline is a well deserved giant in the global drug market, accounting for nearly 7% of the global drug market. GlaxoSmithKline, headquartered in the UK and with the United States as the business operation center, has 100000 employees in more than 100 countries around the world, with an annual output of 4 billion boxes of drugs and consumer health products, and its products are all over the global market.
As of the latest closing, GlaxoSmithKline’s total market value was about US $110 billion (about 700.6 billion yuan). In 2021, its total revenue exceeded US $46 billion and its net profit was close to US $6 billion.
At present, Omicron Ba is highly contagious 2 variant is gradually becoming the most widely spread variant in the world. According to the statistics of global shared influenza data initiative (gisaid), BA The 2 strain has spread to at least 93 countries and regions around the world. Once GlaxoSmithKline’s covid-19 antibody therapy is ineffective against this variant, it may lose out in the competition of covid-19 drug market in the future.
aggressive Omicron ba 2 variant
Since March, Omicron ba 2 variants are sweeping the United States. The CDC expects that Omicron ba 2 variant related confirmed cases have accounted for 35% of the total confirmed cases of covid-19 in the United States.
According to the Wall Street Journal, epidemiologists and medical experts said that Omicron Ba is highly contagious The rapid spread of 2 variants and the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures aimed at slowing the spread of the virus, such as wearing masks, are causing problems on the European continent.
According to the real-time statistics of worldometer, as of 6:00 on March 28, 2022 Beijing time, 816188 million cases of covid-19 pneumonia and 1.034 million deaths had been confirmed in the United States; Compared with the previous day, there were 14018 new confirmed cases and 156 new deaths in the United States.
It should be noted that the number of cases in the United States does not reflect the real number of infections. Because many people use household testing reagents for testing, the United States faces great challenges in tracking cases. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of allergy and infectious diseases, expects that in view of Omicron ba The prevalence of variant 2 is increasing, and the number of cases is expected to increase in the next month, BA 2 may become the main variant of the United States.
In Omicron ba Under the havoc of 2 variants, Europe has sent a signal that a new round of epidemic is about to make a comeback. Among them, the data released by the French public health department showed that 110000 cases were newly diagnosed in France on March 27, with a total of 25.03 million cases; 25 new deaths, with a total of 142000 deaths; 110000 new cases were diagnosed in Germany on the 27th, with a cumulative diagnosis of 20.25 million cases; 49 new deaths, with a total of 128000 deaths; 59555 new cases were diagnosed in Italy on the 27th, with a cumulative diagnosis of more than 14.3 million cases; There were 82 new deaths, with a total of 158800 deaths, making it the second country with the largest number of covid-19 deaths in Europe.
In addition, Britain is also suffering from Omicron ba With the rapid spread of 2 variants, data released by the British government on the 25th showed that the number of newly confirmed cases in a week increased by nearly 30%.
billion race
When the epidemic will end may be the most concerned topic for everyone at present. In this regard, the National Health Commission previously gave four conditions: the pathogenicity and transmission of covid-19 mutant virus are becoming weaker and weaker; Vaccines are more effective; More effective covid-19 drugs; The epidemic situation in other countries has eased.
Obviously, “effective vaccine + covid-19 drug” has become two very important conditions for ending covid-19 epidemic. It can be predicted that covid-19 therapeutic drugs will become more and more important in the future anti epidemic, and the market demand will expand rapidly.
previously, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) estimated that the global oral covid-19 drug market was billions to tens of billions of dollars, equivalent to nearly 100 billion yuan. Meanwhile, Huachuang Securities believes that the market of developed countries in Europe and the United States is expected to be at the level of US $30 billion, and the annual (reserve) demand of domestic covid-19 oral drugs is expected to reach the level of billion people in the future
Currently, covid-19 treatment oral drugs approved worldwide include molnupiravir of MSD, paxlovid of Pfizer and baricitinib of Eli Lilly At present, the demand for covid-19 oral drugs in the global market is very high. According to Pfizer’s official expectation, about 250 million people worldwide need covid-19 drugs in 2022.
On March 10, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) announced that it had signed a supply agreement with Pfizer. It means that China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) will become the Chinese agent of paxlovid small molecule covid-19 oral drug. On the opening day of the day, the price limit was increased by one word, and the strong performance of “7-day and 6-day limit” was harvested in the follow-up, with a maximum increase of 247% during the period. It can be seen that the capital market is enthusiastic about the pursuit of covid-19 specific drugs.
At present, the Chinese market is highly concerned about the progress of domestic covid-19 drugs. Combing relevant reports, it is found that at present, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , real organisms, Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) and other pharmaceutical enterprises have taken the lead in the research and development of small molecule drugs and strive to obtain excellent data in the clinical stage; Xiansheng pharmaceutical, Yunding Xinyao, Geli pharmaceutical and other candidate drugs are also eager to try and are about to enter the clinic.
Vv116 developed by Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) and prochloramide developed by pioneering pharmaceutical industry are in phase III clinical trials.
Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) said that the company has formed a research and development pipeline composed of a variety of anti sars-cov-2 neutralizing antibody drugs and small molecule oral drugs. In addition to vv116, the company also undertakes the candidate new drug vv993 targeting 3CL protease with Wangshan wangshui, and this vv993 is also the second domestic covid-19 oral small molecule antiviral drug jointly developed by Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) and Wangshan wangshui after vv116.
In addition, the relevant person in charge of pioneering Pharmaceutical said that at present, the three global multicenter phase III clinical trials of prochloramide in the treatment of covid-19 are being actively promoted, of which the first global multicenter phase III clinical trial of covid-19 patients with mild and moderate diseases (nct04870606) in the United States and other countries will publish the top line data in late March 2022 and no later than early April.
