1. Overall configuration: the hawk signal is strengthened and the trading order is obviously out of circulation. Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve strengthened, and the term spread of US bonds narrowed rapidly. Recently, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the labor market is strong, but inflation may continue to deteriorate. The possibility of raising interest rates by 50bp at one time cannot be ruled out. Then, the possibility of raising interest rates by 50bp in May increased to 72.2%, and the hawkish signal strengthened again. At the same time, the yield of each year’s U.S. bonds accelerated. The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds exceeded 2.5% on Friday and rose 34bp within the week. The interest rate difference between 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds narrowed to 18bp. The expectation that the United States will face a phased recession is gradually heating up.
Panic improved, and the RMB declined slightly. In terms of risk appetite, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remained anxious and the progress of negotiations was limited, but the market panic feedback was relatively passive, and the trend of VIX Index fell. In the commodity market, risk aversion has eased, the upward trend of gold prices has slowed down, and oil prices have remained high and volatile. In terms of foreign exchange, the US dollar index fluctuated at a high level, with an increase of 0.59% to close at 98.81, and the RMB fell slightly by 0.08%.
Northward fluctuations narrowed, the configuration disk returned significantly, and northward led the outflow again. The recent northward fluctuation has gradually narrowed, with a cumulative net outflow of about 12.779 billion yuan in a single week. In terms of fund type splitting, the allocation disk turns into inflow, the net inflow in a single week is about 15.965 billion yuan, the turnover on the trading disk turns into outflow, and the net outflow in a week is about 28.563 billion yuan. At the same time, the inflow of funds to the South slowed down, with a cumulative net inflow of about 2.147 billion yuan last week. As of March 25, the cumulative net inflow of northbound trading and configuration has reached – 28.563 billion yuan and 15.965 billion yuan respectively since this year.
2. Industry configuration: power equipment and non-ferrous metals are among the top. From the overall perspective, the net inflow of power equipment (+ 2.33 billion yuan), non-ferrous metals (+ 925 million yuan) and petroleum and Petrochemical (+ 455 million yuan) ranks first, with the largest outflow of food and beverage (- 4.829 billion yuan), non bank finance (- 1.772 billion yuan) and building materials (- 1.21 billion yuan);
From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading disk, the net inflow of non-ferrous metals (+ 382 million yuan) is the largest, while the net outflow of food and beverage (- 4.925 billion yuan) is the largest; From the perspective of configuration disk, the net inflow of power equipment (+ 4.094 billion yuan) is the largest, while the net outflow of computer (- 417 million yuan) is the largest.
3. Allocation of individual shares: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) increase in shareholding ranks first, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decrease in shareholding is in the majority. From the overall perspective, the net inflow of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 886 million yuan), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 652 million yuan) and Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (+ 611 million yuan) ranks first; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 2.457 billion yuan), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (- 868 million yuan) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 779 million yuan) mostly flowed out.
From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading order, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 593 million yuan), Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (+ 358 million yuan) and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) (+ 355 million yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 2.155 billion yuan), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 1.154 billion yuan) and China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) (- 886 million yuan) mostly flowed out. From the perspective of configuration disk, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (+ 904 million yuan), Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (+ 898 million yuan) and Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (+ 844 million yuan) are among the top net inflow; The outflow of Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (- 627 million yuan), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (- 305 million yuan) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 302 million yuan) was the majority.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
