Core view
Background: since the implementation of the new regulations, all financial sub sections have promoted the active management transformation under the guidance of deleveraging and de channel. Bank financial management has entered the era of net worth, insurance funds have maintained a stable investment style, the scale of trust plan has stabilized and rebounded after the painful period of channel compression, the net value of public funds has continued to reach a new high, and the scale of private funds is also steadily increasing. By the end of 2021, the total scale of large asset management industry under non de duplication statistics was about 140.8 trillion yuan, of which bank financing, public funds and insurance funds accounted for the top three, accounting for 20.6%, 18.2% and 16.5% respectively, followed by trust plans and private funds, accounting for 14.6% and 14.4% respectively. The above five asset management directions accounted for 84.2% of the whole market. As the beginning of a series of follow-up reports, this paper will deeply analyze the phased changes of the five sectors, so as to explore the potential investment value of the large asset management industry.
Bank financial management: in the era of net worth, development is back on track. Since the new regulations of asset management in 2018, the expansion of bank financial management scale has been blocked under the pressure of rectification. However, we see that with the gradual improvement of the industry regulatory framework, the financial management business has returned to healthy development. Especially since the third quarter of 21, benefiting from the fluctuations of the capital market, the growth of financial management scale has been significantly accelerated. At the same time, the net worth transformation of the industry has been basically completed, the financial management subsidiary has gradually become the main force of the market, and the product system has become more and more perfect. Looking forward to the future, the wealth management market of Chinese residents has a broad space, and the advantages of banks in the channel side are still stable. We expect that the financial management business will return to the fast track of development.
Public funds: the net value and the number of products increased steadily, and the distribution pattern was stable. The market scale of public funds exceeded 26 trillion yuan at the end of February 2022, reaching a new high, and the net value of non commodity funds increased by 27% year-on-year; In March, the newly issued shares fell 67% year-on-year, with an average share of only 660 million. We believe that it is mainly affected by market fluctuations, resulting in a decline in residents’ preference for venture capital and a decrease in the attractiveness of the capital market. The competition in the sales channels of public funds intensified, and the third-party sales agencies maintained strong growth. The market share at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 increased by 2.38pp to 34.61% month on month compared with the third quarter, but the bank still accounted for half of the country.
Other asset management: the scale of private placement has increased steadily, the growth rate of trust has gradually stabilized, and the growth momentum of insurance funds has weakened. 1) The popularity of private equity funds rose, and the scale of 2m22 was stable at 20 trillion platform at the end of the year, of which the scale of private securities investment funds reached 6.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%; Spring Festival factors superimposed the impact of market fluctuations, and the new record fell in February, only 35.8 billion yuan. 2) The growth rate of the trust industry has gradually stabilized, the proportion of collective trust has steadily increased, and the proportion of active management has increased by 3.64pp to 58.8% year-on-year in 2021. The “de channel” has achieved substantial results. 3) The use of insurance funds reached 23.24 trillion yuan at the end of 1m22, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, which was significantly weaker than the growth rate of about 15% in previous years. It was mainly due to the pressure on the liability side, which dragged down the growth momentum, and the overall configuration side remained stable.
Investment proposal remaining investment target
Pay attention to the main line of large public offering investment, focus on the high-quality basic subjects with excellent equity investment performance, high brand market recognition and high contribution to wealth management performance, maintain the positive rating of the industry, recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , overweight), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) ( Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , overweight), and pay attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (03908, not rated).
Risk tips
The volatility of the capital market increased, the economic downturn exceeded expectations, the risk of industrial regulatory policies, and the allocation demand under the influence of the epidemic decreased.
