Beer: the short-term sales volume is repeatedly affected by the epidemic, and the price increase is implemented to cushion the cost pressure. From January to February 2022, the output of beer industry was 5.309 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, which has returned to the pre epidemic level in 2019. Since March, due to the strong and repeated epidemic in the country, the drinking scene has been greatly impacted, and the total amount of beer is expected to be under pressure. By the end of 2021, beer leaders have started to raise prices to cope with the pressure of rising costs. The transmission is good. The dividend of 2022q1 price increase is expected to be fully reflected on the statement side to alleviate the pressure of costs.
Condiments: expect the demand to improve and the price increase will be gradually transmitted. From January to February 2022, the revenue of the catering industry was 771.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, an increase of 4.7% compared with the same period in 2019, but it has not yet recovered to the industry growth rate of nearly 10% before the epidemic. The epidemic situation was repeated in March, and the catering industry is expected to suffer obvious damage. During the Spring Festival season of condiments from January to February, in order to grab the market and achieve a good start, the price increase of the industry has not been fully reflected, while the cost side continues to rise. It is expected that the profitability of 2022q1 condiment company is still under pressure.
Dairy products: the demand is stable, the cost pressure is relieved, and the cost input is rational. The rigid demand for dairy products is mainly due to the healthy consumption trend under the background of the epidemic, which promotes the demand for white milk. This year, the atmosphere of returning home for the Chinese New Year is stronger, the gift giving effect is more obvious, and the liquid milk with low base may have a relatively bright performance. The pressure on the cost of raw milk has eased, and the cost investment in the industry remains relatively rational. It is expected that the income performance of dairy enterprises will have a relatively bright performance in Q1.
Quick frozen food: the marginal demand has improved, and the cost pressure has not been relieved. Since the Spring Festival, the overall demand for rice products in East China has been more seriously affected by multiple factors, such as the repeated outbreak of the Spring Festival in March, and the overall demand for rice products in East China has exceeded the expectation. Oil, soybean protein and other raw materials are still rising this year, with significant cost pressure, but the price increase may cover part of the cost impact to a certain extent. It is expected that the Q1 performance of quick-frozen food enterprises is still under obvious pressure.
Snack food: the dislocation of the Spring Festival affects the income growth, and the cost pressure is still on. During the Spring Festival in January, the mobile sales of terminals were in good condition, and the sales of offline supermarkets of nuts fried goods doubled. Considering that February is the off-season after the traditional festival, combined with the impact of last year’s high base, mobile sales are expected to decline in February this year. In March, the epidemic spread in China and some areas were blocked. On the one hand, it can stimulate home consumption and accelerate the destocking of terminals and channels. On the other hand, it is expected to have a certain impact on the delivery rhythm. Some leisure snack manufacturers transferred out factory prices in the fourth quarter of last year, and the transmission of price increase was relatively smooth. Since this year, palm oil, soybean oil and other raw materials have remained at a high level. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation rate has further increased, and there is expected to be some pressure on the cost side.
Investment suggestion: listed companies of 2022q1 popular products are still under pressure. On the one hand, although the demand side performed well from January to February, the epidemic since March has repeatedly led to the contraction of end demand; On the other hand, the prices of packaging materials and raw materials are still rising, and the external uncertain environment will continue to affect the subsequent costs. In this context, we suggest paying attention to the target that the demand is less affected by the epidemic and even benefits to a certain extent, and the cost side increases less or even falls back. We suggest actively paying attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) . At present, the market is waiting for the haze to dissipate. We believe that after the follow-up epidemic repair, the industry concentration will be accelerated. We pay attention to the leaders with core competitiveness. We suggest to choose the opportunity to lay out Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , etc.
Risk warning: the risk of continuous spread of the global epidemic; Risk of food safety incidents; Risk of rising costs; The channel survey data sample is insufficient, which can not accurately reflect the overall risk of the industry; Risk of untimely update of information and data used in Research Report
