\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
Q1 performance may reach a new high in a single quarter, reaffirm the allocation value of Baima again and maintain the “buy” rating
According to the company’s performance forecast, Q1 company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.25 billion yuan to 2.45 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 674 million yuan to 874 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43% – 55%. The quarterly performance may reach a new high in a single quarter.
In Q1 2022, the company optimized the product structure through the flexible production mechanism. At the same time, the price of the company’s main products increased year-on-year and some projects were put into operation. The company’s Q1 profit increased significantly year-on-year in 2022, once again highlighting the profitability toughness of the leading coal chemical industry. We maintain the profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 7.254 billion, 6.716 billion and 7.395 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 3.43, 3.18 and 3.50 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 9.4, 10.2 and 9.2 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
The prices of most of Q1’s main products rose year-on-year, supporting the substantial year-on-year growth of the company’s performance
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, in Q1 2022, the average price, year-on-year and month on month changes of coal and various products are 945 (+ 61.64%, – 19.99%), 2646 (+ 32.85%, – 0.26%), melamine 11321 (+ 52.23%, – 27.81%), octanol 12365 (- 2.19%, + 2.01%), acetic acid 4935 (- 5.64%, – 28.54%), DMF 16682 (+ 63.88%, + 2.90%) Adipic acid 13625 (+ 45.81%, + 6.90%) yuan / ton. In Q1 2022, the prices of most of the company’s main products increased year-on-year, remained relatively high month on month, coal prices fell month on month, and product profits rose month on month. At present, crude oil prices remain high, and product prices may remain high. With the peak of China’s coal consumption has passed, it is expected that the coal price will not rise sharply, and the company’s future profit is expected to remain high.
Carbonate project and caprolactam project are put into operation, which helps the company’s performance growth and is optimistic about the company’s long-term growth
According to the company’s announcement, in October 2021, the company’s series of technical transformation projects for increasing production and improving quality of dimethyl carbonate were put into operation. It is expected that the whole unit will have the capacity to jointly produce 300000 tons / year of high-quality dimethyl carbonate. At the same time, the new material project of amide and nylon (300000 tons / year) caprolactam and supporting devices are put into operation, with an annual output of 300000 tons of caprolactam and 480000 tons of ammonium sulfate. The new material sector of the company is further expanded. In the future, the company will continue to expand the production capacity of 300000 tons of dimethyl carbonate and other high-end solvents and two sets of 40000 tons of nylon 66 units. At the same time, according to the company’s official website, the company will build a 300000 t / a dicarboxylic acid project in Dezhou Park, with a total investment of 980 million yuan, which is optimistic about the future growth of the company.
Risk tips: the construction progress of the project is not as expected, the product price has fallen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, etc
