\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 50.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 444 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.34%, which was mainly dragged down by the impairment of assets and credit of about 1.1 billion yuan; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share (including tax).
Sea breeze rush loading, technological progress and other factors promoted the continuous optimization of fan order structure and the steady improvement of profitability.
In 2021, the sales capacity of 3S / 4S platform units of the company was 444942mw, with a year-on-year increase of 210.27%; 6S / 8s platform units are mainly for offshore wind power users, with a sales capacity of 195075mw, a year-on-year increase of 305.01%, and a gross profit margin of 7.82 PCT to 27.98%; The new generation of medium speed permanent magnet products launched by the company have successfully achieved a breakthrough, with a sales capacity of 108.50mw and a gross profit margin of 7.26%. The scale of external orders on hand has reached 481695mw. The sales capacity in 22 years is expected to increase significantly and the gross profit margin is also expected to increase. Under the multiple effects of sales structure optimization, cost control and high price order settlement, the gross profit margin of the company’s fan and parts sales business increased by 3.30 PCT to 17.71% year-on-year, and the profitability improved steadily.
The scale of wind power asset management has been steadily improved, and the investment income of wind farm ensures the growth of performance. In 2021, the company’s new equity grid connected installed capacity of self operated wind farms outside China was 1408mw, and the global cumulative equity grid connected capacity was 6.07gw; The average utilization hours of power generation of Chinese units were 2546 hours, 300 hours higher than the national average, and the power generation revenue was 5.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.56%. In 2021, the company transferred 827.47mw of equity grid connected capacity and obtained 949 million yuan of investment income. By the end of 2021, the capacity of the company’s equity wind farm under construction reached 2.6gw. The investment income of wind farm in rolling development mode will continue to ensure the growth of the company’s performance.
Continue to expand the service market business after overweight, and steadily promote the integrated solution business of power sales + source network load storage.
The company attaches great importance to the development and development of the post wind power service market. At the end of 2021, the scale of the company’s external wind farm asset management service reached 7685.7mw, and the capacity of projects in operation of China’s external post service business reached 23144mw. In 2021, the wind power service revenue was 4.082 billion yuan, of which the post service revenue was 1.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.09%. In addition, the company continued to promote the development of power sales business and provided power sales services to nearly 2000 power users through six power sales companies. In 2021, the contracted capacity of the company’s power sales business was 20.5 billion kwh, an increase of 43% year-on-year.
Maintain the “buy” rating: considering the changes in the company’s order structure on hand (the decrease of sea breeze orders with high gross profit) and the phased pressure on the profit of wind turbine single watt after fierce competition in the industry, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 22-23 years and added a 24-year profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 3.630/45.96/5.564 billion yuan (down 13% / down 4% / new), and the corresponding EPS in 22-24 years will be 0.86/1.09/1.32 yuan respectively, The current A-share price corresponds to 15 / 12 / 10 times of PE in 22-24 years, and the current H-share price corresponds to 11 / 9 / 7 times of PE in 22-24 years. Under the background of carbon neutrality, the demand of the wind power industry is expected to maintain the growth trend. In the era of parity, the company’s fan quality and post service capacity remain the industry leader. In addition, the large order scale of the company’s medium speed permanent magnet products is also expected to promote the steady increase of the company’s market share and maintain the company’s a / H share “buy in” rating.
Risk warning: commodity price rise and supply chain security risk; The gross profit margin and price of the fan are lower than expected; Risk of major changes in industrial policies
