\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
On December 28, 2022, the company released the performance express for the first quarter of 2021 and 2022: the total revenue in 2021 was 109464 billion yuan (+ 11.71%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.460 billion yuan (+ 12.34%). In 2022q1, the total revenue was about 33.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 18% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 16.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 19% at the same time.
The first quarter got off to a good start as scheduled, and the e-commerce platform is expected to speed up the reform
Compared with the company's business report in 2021, the performance express in 2021 is basically consistent. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 32.411 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.194 billion yuan, an increase of 18.1% at the same time. In the fourth quarter, revenue and profits accelerated month on month growth compared with the third quarter.
In 2022q1, the total revenue was about 33.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 18% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 16.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 19% at the same time. In the first quarter, the company made a good start as scheduled, and the growth of revenue and profit this year has accelerated. Recently, the company launched a new e-commerce platform - "I Maotai", which is expected to be officially put into operation on March 31. At present, four products are planned to be launched: 53 degrees 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the renyin tiger), 53 degrees 500ml Maotai 1935, 53 degrees 375ml 2 (year of the renyin tiger), 53 degrees 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasures). Pfizer is expected to launch later. The launch of the new e-commerce platform marks the acceleration of the company's reform process, and the company is expected to enter the fast lane.
Maotai new measures, optimization and adjustment is an important aspect
At the end of August 2021, Ding Xiongjun became the chairman of Maotai and proposed the direction of the company's reform: marketization and legalization, releasing positive signals.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the optimization and adjustment of Maotai was an important focus, which was mainly divided into price adjustment, product structure adjustment and channel structure adjustment. In terms of price, the company has cancelled the unpacking policy and returned to marketization. The wholesale price of whole Mao and scattered Mao is expected to continue to narrow. We expect Maotai to raise the price at least once during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In terms of product structure, we believe that the company will continue to adjust the proportion of non-standard products to drive the ton price increase. This is also confirmed by the price increase of non-standard products since this year; The product structure of series liquor will be continuously optimized, and the "big single product" strategy will be implemented internally. The "1 + n" big single product group with Maotai Prince liquor as the core, Han sauce and Guizhou Daqu have become 1 billion big single products. The adjustment of channel structure is another important focus during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In the future, the dealer quota will remain unchanged, and the company will focus on developing direct channels (including self-supporting, e-commerce, supermarket and enterprise group purchase). Since 2018, the company has paid more attention to the launch of direct marketing channels, especially in peak seasons such as the Mid Autumn Festival, national day and Spring Festival. It has successively signed Maotai quotas with national supermarkets such as Yonghui, regional supermarkets such as Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , e-commerce such as tmall, jd.com and other non distribution channels, so as to increase the breadth, depth and frequency of contact with consumers and increase the bottle opening rate of Maotai in that year.
Profit forecast
We continue to be optimistic about the brand moat, the medium and long-term pattern of high-end liquor is still stable, and the role of Maotai sea god needle is still obvious. According to the performance express, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 41.76/49.58/57.96 yuan respectively (the previous values were 41.39/48.06/55.02 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 40 / 34 / 29 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, less than expected capacity expansion, less than expected growth of direct channels, less than expected reform process, rapid upward risk of pricing, etc.
