\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 760 Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) )
Key investment points
Deduct non net profit in the first quarter of 2022 and increase it by 59% in advance; In 2021, the net profit deducted for the whole year increased by 70% year-on-year
1) in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 34.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70%.
2) the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 was lower than that of revenue, mainly due to the significant increase of R & D expense rate and management expense rate in the fourth quarter compared with the first three quarters. The higher rate of administrative expenses is mainly due to the increase of employee salary, and the higher rate of R & D expenses is mainly due to the increase of R & D investment. The increase of personnel salary and R & D investment are conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the company.
3) the higher growth rate of net profit deducted from non parent company is due to the large amount of government subsidies of about 430 million in the same period of 2020. Under the background of the sharp decline of government subsidies in 2021, the company still achieved relatively rapid growth and improved business quality.
4) the company’s performance in the first quarter of 2022 exceeded expectations and made a good start! The revenue is expected to increase by 29% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent is expected to be 460 million yuan, an increase of 59%.
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, contract liabilities increased by 17% month on month; Subsequent rapid growth of related party transactions
1) at the end of 2021, the company’s contractual liabilities were RMB 36.5 billion, an increase of 17% from RMB 31.2 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2021, indicating that the company has received a large amount of orders, and the orders on hand are full at present.
2) the total actual amount of goods and services purchased by the company in 2021 increased by 37% year-on-year, and the estimated amount of goods and services purchased by the company in 2022 increased by 33% year-on-year compared with the actual amount in 2021, indicating that the business scale of the company will continue to grow rapidly.
China’s military aircraft industry has ushered in a golden period of development, and many factors have boosted the company’s performance
1) under the situation of “no major change in a century”, it is expected that China’s national defense expenditure will grow steadily, the proportion of equipment expenditure will increase, aviation equipment is expected to be oversupplied, and the total scale of military aircraft industry in the 14th five year plan is about 550 billion, with a compound growth rate of 19%.
3) the company’s product j-16 is China’s most advanced heavy-duty multifunctional fighter, which is indispensable in the equipment system of “four generation equipment as the backbone and three generation equipment as the main body”. J-15 is the only carrier based aircraft in active service, with strong growth certainty. The Uighur Eagle stealth fighter has broad space for domestic and foreign trade. The company will continue to benefit from the heavy volume of aviation equipment.
4) the state continues to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises and improve the vitality of state-owned assets. Under the catalysis of “scale effect / equity incentive / small core and large cooperation / pricing reform / large order + large prepayment”, the operating efficiency of the company is expected to continue to improve.
Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) : the compound growth rate of performance in the next three years is expected to exceed 31%
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.21/28.9/3.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30% / 31% / 33%, EPS of 1.13/1.47/1.96 yuan, PE of 52 / 40 / 30 times and PS of 2.8/2.2/1.8 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the delivery confirmation of military products is less than expected; 2) The development progress of key models is less than expected
