\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Event overview
The company issued an annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 30.17 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 8.67%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.34%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.207 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 21.54%; EPS2. 33 yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
Both volume and price have risen, and the process of high-end has been accelerated
In 2021, under the background of multiple outbreaks and sluggish consumption in China, the company adhered to the high-quality development strategy, gave full play to the brand and quality advantages of Qingdao, actively explored the market outside China, realized the development trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price of the main beer industry and accelerated the process of high-end, and the revenue increased by 8.67% year-on-year.
In terms of split volume and price, the company achieved 7.93 million kiloliters of sales in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.4%, corresponding to a ton price of 3804 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.2%. Thanks to the continuous improvement of the proportion of the main brand Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and the optimization and upgrading of product structure, the main brand Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) achieved 4.329 million kiloliters of sales, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.6%, and the ton price of 4572.9 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.85%. Similarly, the volume and price increased simultaneously, and the proportion of revenue increased to 65.6% (year-on-year + 3.46pct), At the same time, the company continued to accelerate the layout of high-end and ultra-high-end markets, and the sales volume of high-end and above products reached 520000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%.
In terms of sub regions, the company’s Shandong / North China / South China / East China / Southeast / overseas revenue was + 9.55% / + 12.10% / + 2.99% / – 0.39% / + 8.31% / + 14.64% year-on-year respectively, and the corresponding Shandong / North China / South China / East China / Southeast / overseas sales were + 3.39% / + 6.75% / – 1.32% / – 6.92% / + 1.03% / + 11.94% year-on-year respectively. However, the ton prices in all regions increased year-on-year, and the company continued to consolidate and improve the base market construction with remarkable results.
Gross profit margin increase + refined management, business efficiency increase
The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in 2021 were 36.71% (comparable caliber) and 10.46%, respectively + 1.38 and + 2.53pct compared with the same period last year. The increase of gross profit margin is the core reason for the improvement of profitability. On the cost side, although facing the pressure of rising raw material prices, the company promoted the gross profit margin by 1.38pct through centralized procurement, structural optimization and price increase, with strong cost control ability. On the expense side, the company’s sales / management / Finance / R & D expense ratio was 13.6% / 5.6% / – 0.8% / 0.1% respectively, which was + 0.7 / – 0.4 / + 0.9 / + 0.0pct respectively compared with the same period last year. The increase in the sales expense ratio was mainly due to the company’s increased brand publicity and the low base in the same period. The decrease in the management expense ratio was mainly due to the company’s active revenue and expenditure, cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the further improvement of management efficiency. In addition, the company received a land expropriation compensation during the year, contributing 436 million yuan of profit, which also contributed to the growth of performance. Overall, the company achieved a net interest rate of 10.46% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.53pct. The net interest rate deducted without considering the impact of non recurring profits and losses was 7.31%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.77pct, and the operating efficiency continued to improve.
Cost reduction and efficiency increase, and profits continue to be realized
In the short term, the beer industry is facing cost pressure and the impact of the epidemic, but the company is actively alleviating cost pressure through price increase and structural optimization. China is comprehensively and actively responding to the impact of the epidemic. The epidemic is expected to continue to improve and the impact on the industry will continue to weaken Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) is the leading brand of high-end beer in China, continuously promoting the development of medium and high-end, tinned and refined brewing products, continuously promoting the upgrading of product structure and raising the overall ton price of beer; At the same time, cost investment and internal management continue to promote cost reduction, efficiency increase and fine management. We are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company’s profitability for a long time, and further strengthen its competitiveness in the beer industry, especially in the field of medium and high-end beer.
Investment suggestions:
Referring to the latest annual report, we raised the forecast of the company’s 22-year operating revenue of 31.719 billion yuan to 32.497 billion yuan, and increased the forecast of 23-24-year revenue of 34.945/36.934 billion yuan; Reduce 22 year eps2 The forecast of 51 yuan is 2.49 yuan, and the EPS forecast of 23-24 years is 2.88/3.21 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 78.00 yuan / share on March 28, 2022, and the PE is 31 / 27 / 24 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips:
The price of raw materials rose, the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, and the industry competition intensified
