\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 603 Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) )
Investment logic
There are frequent favorable policies in the traditional Chinese medicine industry: the registered innovative traditional Chinese medicine has risen to class 1 and 1 new drugs; The average review time of innovative traditional Chinese medicines at the approval end was shortened from 3000 days to about 500 days. In 2021, 12 innovative traditional Chinese medicines were approved, which exceeded the sum of the past four years; On the payment side, the price reduction range of traditional Chinese medicine medical insurance negotiation is less than that of Western medicine. At present, the national centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicine has not been carried out.
Lianhua Qingwen helps fight the epidemic. The company's Lianhua Qingwen is the recommended drug for covid-19 control. In 2020, the sales volume exceeded 4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150%. In 2021, affected by the channel sales control of pharmacies in some cities caused by the repeated epidemic, the sales are expected to decline slightly. From 2022 to 2023, it is expected that the large volume of overseas market, the growth of patients with mild and moderate diseases in China during the observation period, and the potential demand of residents for self provision will become the new growth point of Lianhua Qingwen. It is estimated that the sales of Lianhua Qingwen will reach 4.3 billion yuan and 4.7 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023.
The three major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products continued to grow. In the field of cardio cerebrovascular, the company has three major products: Tongxinluo capsule, Shensong Yangxin capsule and Qiliqiangxin capsule, with a total sales volume of 3.1 billion yuan in 2019. In 2020, the company's three major products of collateral disease theory and cardio cerebrovascular won the first prize of national scientific and technological progress, and still achieved an increase of 11% under the influence of the epidemic. After the epidemic is repaired in 2021, it is expected that the three major products of cardio cerebrovascular will achieve an increase of more than 30% and the total sales will reach 4.5 billion yuan. It is estimated that cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products will continue to grow from 2022 to 2023, and the total sales will reach 6.1 billion yuan in 2023.
The R & D pipeline is rich, and the leader of innovative traditional Chinese medicine can grow for a long time. The research and development of innovative traditional Chinese medicine of the company follows the "Three Combinations" evidence system for registration and evaluation of innovative traditional Chinese medicine, the theoretical basis of the company's collateral diseases, the human use experience of more than 90 kinds of in-hospital preparations of Hebei Yiling hospital, and the company's rich experience in clinical trials of innovative traditional Chinese medicine. It is expected that 1-2 new products will be approved and listed every year, with long-term growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 10.13/11.94/14 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 13.9/16.7/2.01 billion yuan respectively. Using the relative valuation method and referring to comparable companies, the PE valuation of the company's profit in 2021 is 40 times, and the target price is 33.32 yuan / share. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of epidemic change, the risk of centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicine, the risk of product sales falling short of expectations, the risk of policy supervision such as medical insurance, and the risk of new drug R & D progress falling short of expectations.
