\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) announced the main financial data of 2021 and the main operation in the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the revenue was 109464 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. It is estimated that the total operating revenue in 2022q1 will be about 33.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%.
The first quarter was in line with expectations and continued to accelerate growth. According to the company’s annual performance accounting guidelines, we calculate that the total operating revenue of 21q4 is about 32.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 14.0%, and the net profit is about 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 18.1%, which is significantly accelerated compared with the first three quarters. In this announcement, the company expects the revenue and profit of 22q1 to increase by about 18% / 19% respectively, continuing the good momentum of 21q4. We believe that Q1 growth is mainly due to Feitian’s large volume, the contribution of Maotai 1935 and treasures to new products, the inclination of non-standard Maotai to proprietary channels, and the incremental contribution of Maotai flavor series.
There was little pressure to establish structural optimization and accelerate growth throughout the year. In recent three years, the proportion of Maotai Q1 revenue in the whole year is between 25-26%. At the same time, considering that the contribution factors of Q1 growth are expected to continue to play a role, we expect to achieve a performance growth rate similar to Q1 in the whole year. 1) New quota input direct channels. According to the feedback of channel research, we expect that this year’s volume increase will be mainly through direct channels, contributing to the increase of revenue and driving the increase of ton price at the same time. 2) According to the feedback of channel research, this year’s non-standard quotas such as dealers’ high-quality products and zodiac are mainly obtained through self operated stores, driving the increase of dealers’ delivery cost. 3) Significant contribution of new products: Treasures: each dealer of treasures added a quota of 40 boxes this month. Since there was basically no inventory of treasures before, it is expected to continue to maintain the delivery rhythm of existing treasures in the future; Maotai 1935: at present, it is mainly sold through series liquor dealers, and a certain quota is allocated to Maotai specialty stores through e-commerce platform, and the delivery rhythm also shows an accelerating trend.
The launch of new e-commerce is imminent, and the marketing reform will take another step. According to the Shanghai Securities Daily, Moutai’s new I 2022.3.31 has been completed for six months. The public’s Micro wine is expected to be officially launched on the trial run of the company’s first official account. The first batch of products that can be purchased will be mainly new products this year, which reflects the innovation and caution of the company’s reform. The company’s first batch of products will be launched on the basis of the latest information. We believe that the new self owned e-commerce platform will bring three benefits: first, the flow entrance will take Feitian as a whole: Maotai previously launched Feitian through a third-party e-commerce. This time, it is expected to recover the flow and leverage the sales of non-standard Maotai and Maotai series liquor through the attraction of Feitian Maotai. Second, cultural publicity position: in the future, cultural publicity will be more accurate and vivid to enhance the long-term brand value of Maotai. Third, consumer control is further enhanced: Maotai’s consumer cultivation is at the forefront of the industry, and the e-commerce platform is expected to make the data richer and more accurate. We believe that the promotion of the new platform is a supplement to the sales system rather than subversion, and also reflects the strong reform willingness and ability of the new management. It is expected to launch more marketing reform measures in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: maintain the “buy” rating. According to the company’s main financial data for 21 years and the announcement of operation in the first quarter, we slightly adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the total operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 109.5/131.3/153.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% / 19.9% / 16.9%; The net profit was 52.5/64.4/74.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3% / 22.7% / 17.9%, the corresponding EPS was 41.76/51.25/60.42 yuan respectively (the previous time was 42.07/50.61/59.95 yuan), and the corresponding PE was 32 / 27 times from 2022 to 2023, which is highly recommended.
Risk tip: the sales of high-end alcoholic drinks are not as expected, and the continuous spread of the epidemic brings downside risks to the global economy and policy risks.
