\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 597 Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) )
Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) 2021 annual report: on March 28, the company announced the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 29.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.59%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 592 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 2.55%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 433 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 6.50%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.16 yuan per share, with a dividend rate of 37.24%.
With the successful completion of the annual revenue target, xinlaite faces temporary external challenges. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 29.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.59%, equivalent to 7.149 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 9.61%, exceeding the revenue target of 2021 by 8.17%. In terms of products, liquid milk / other dairy products / animal husbandry achieved revenue of RMB 17.101/84.80/2.290 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.85% / + 8.86% / + 11.01% respectively. The main business achieved rapid growth, and new excellent A2 was promoted in 2021 β- Casein fresh milk, 0 sucrose authentic drinking series, Youjia 3.8 protein pure milk and other products promote the company to move towards the strategy of high-end at room temperature and “leading fresh” at low temperature. The sales volume of fresh milk / yogurt / milk powder reached 4513 / 71.70 / 227200 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 22% / + 10% / + 15% respectively. The epidemic has further promoted the consumption of white milk. The overweight development of “follow your heart” business will continue to build low-temperature channel barriers. In terms of subregions, Shanghai / other places / overseas achieved revenue of RMB 7.965/14.234/6.601 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.81% / + 19.54% / + 6.87% respectively, and the overseas market continued to repair. By the end of 2021, there were 402 / 3802 dealers in Shanghai and – 14 / – 264 dealers in other places. New Zealand xinlaite achieved a revenue of 6.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.68%. Due to the sharp rise in the price of raw milk in New Zealand, the rise in shipping costs, the impact of the epidemic on key customers and other factors, the current loss was 40 million yuan. From the perspective of different channels, the revenue of direct sales / distribution reached 7.476 billion yuan and 21.170 billion yuan respectively.
The high raw milk price affects the gross profit margin in the short term, and the expense rate remains basically stable. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 18.35%, a year-on-year increase of -3.70pct. Among them, the gross profit margin of dairy products was 19.63%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.70pct, mainly due to the high price of raw milk. In 2021, the national average price of fresh milk was 4.3 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%. At present, the marginal downward trend of milk price has appeared, which will benefit the release of the company’s profit space. The gross profit margin of animal husbandry was 2.92%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.77pct, mainly due to the rise of feed costs. In 2021, the company’s expense rate during the period was 15.98%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.91pct, of which the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were 12.50% / 2.79% / 0.31% / 0.39% and -0.46 / – 0.48 / – 0.07 / + 0.10pct respectively. The overall expense level remained basically stable. The annual net interest rate was 1.94%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.17pct, which was affected by the rise of raw milk prices and xinlaite’s short-term losses.
Set an increase in the construction of upstream pastures, acquire Xiaoxi cattle and speed up the national layout. In December 2021, the company privately issued 154 million shares and raised 1.93 billion yuan for the construction of Suixi, Zhongwei, Funan and hachuan pastures in Huaibei. It is expected that after the project is completed, the stock size will increase by 31000. In addition, the reconstruction and expansion project of Jinshan dairy farm will be carried out. The company increased the layout of upstream milk sources, improved the control and quality attributes of upstream raw milk, effectively supported the upward movement of the company’s product structure to high-end and promoted national expansion. In November, the company signed an equity transfer agreement to acquire 60% of the equity of xiaoxiniu with RMB 612 million. Xiaoxiniu has many own pastures in Qinghai and Ningxia, which will further improve the company’s raw milk self-sufficiency rate. At the same time, the company is expected to realize the Northwest market layout with the help of xiaoxiniu, accelerate the process of national development, and introduce xiaoxiniu’s sectorau milk, Qinghai old yogurt and other products to realize differentiated competition.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 32.273/35.758/39.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.5% / + 10.8% / + 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 673 / 757 / 854 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.5% / + 12.6% / + 12.8%, equivalent to EPS of 0.49/0.55/0.62 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 24 / 21 / 19x. The company’s valuation is slightly higher than the average expected valuation of the dairy industry in 2022 by 23x (arithmetic average method, consistent with wind’s expectation). In combination with the return of the company’s normal temperature milk to the high growth channel, superimposed with the rapid growth of low temperature, and the growth brought by extended M & A, the company maintains the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: raw milk price fluctuations exceed expectations, industry competition intensifies, food safety risks, etc
