\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 839 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) )
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The annual revenue increased steadily and achieved an increase of more than 10%, and the profit before provision increased by 9.7% year-on-year. The asset quality was excellent, the provision fed back the profit, and the growth rate of net profit exceeded 30%. 2. The increase in retail accounts for 65.0%, mainly due to the growth of personal production and operation loans. Personal production and operation loans reached 26.323 billion, an increase of 6.01 billion over the end of last year, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, accounting for 40% of the new loans in the whole year. The retail transformation has achieved remarkable results. 3. Income from intermediary business is becoming positive. The net fee income has changed from the net expenditure of RMB 100 million last year to the positive income of RMB 124 million. Among them, the agency service revenue maintained a good growth, an increase of 180 million over last year, a year-on-year increase of 251.4%, and the proportion increased to 73.8%. 4. Asset quality remains excellent. In the fourth quarter, the company’s non-performing rate was 0.94%, unchanged month on month, and the non-performing rate was stable at a historical low; The proportion of concerned loans decreased 4bp to 1.61% month on month, and the company will have little non-performing pressure in the future. The overdue rate decreased 10bp to 0.90% compared with the half year; The overdue level is generally low. The company has strict recognition of non-performing goods, with overdue accounting for 95% of non-performing goods, and overdue goods are basically included in non-performing goods. The coverage of provision for non-performing assets increased by 24.0 percentage points to 475.6% month on month; The loan allocation ratio increased by 24bp to 4.49% month on month. 5. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose month on month. In 2021, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 9.82%, 11.53% and 14.30% respectively, with a chain comparison of + 23bp, + 20bp and – 22bp.
Insufficient annual report: the annualized interest rate spread in a single quarter decreased by 17bp to 2.31% month on month. With the joint drag of both assets and liabilities, the return on assets decreased by 8bp month on month and the cost on the liability side increased by 12bp month on month. It is expected that there are some structural reasons for the decline of asset side income. The proportion of bills in total loans increased by 0.8 percentage points to 8.2% month on month in the third quarter; The proportion of low-yield interbank assets in interest bearing assets increased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.3% month on month. The liability side is expected to be mainly dragged down by the increase of deposit cost, and the trend of deposit periodization continues.
Investment suggestion: 2022e, 2023epb0 83X/0.73X； PE7. 03x / 6.12x (rural commercial bank pb0.68x/0.62x; pe6.96x / 6.32x), the company actively transformed small and micro businesses, continuously improved the contribution of deposit and loan and revenue of retail business, greatly optimized and consolidated asset quality, and generally stable fundamentals. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 5.493/63.52/7.292 billion yuan (the previous value is 6.191/7.208 / – billion yuan), with a growth rate of 19.0% / 15.6% / 14.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.544/17.73/2.025 billion yuan (the previous value was 1.273/13.99/ – billion), with a growth rate of 18.4% / 14.8% / 14.2%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the corporate loan yield is adjusted to 5.80% / 5.80% / 5.80%; The bond investment yield is 3.20% / 3.20% / 3.20%. 2. The company’s deposits are facing competitive pressure, and the interest payment rate is adjusted to 2.35% / 2.35% / 2.35%. 3. The company’s asset quality is excellent, the provision provision provision slows down, and the provision expenditure / average loan is adjusted to 1.92% / 1.92% / 1.91%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
