\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Event:
China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) released the performance forecast of 2022q1, which is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.727-2.916 billion (median 2.822 billion, after retroactive restatement), with a year-on-year increase of about 50% – 60%.
The volume and price of nuclear power business rise simultaneously, and the performance is expected to maintain high growth in 2022. 2022q1’s performance increased by about 50% – 60% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of the company’s on grid power and the increase of the comprehensive average on grid electricity price during the reporting period. From January to February in 2022, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, so the net profit attributable to the parent company in March was about 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 67%. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, the performance of the company’s nuclear power business is expected to maintain high growth. Under the background of three new grid connected units in 2021, according to our calculation, the company’s nuclear power business may add 10.9 billion kwh of on grid power in 2022. When the market-oriented transaction electricity price increases by 5% – 15%, the annual net profit of the company may be increased by 1.5-2.8 billion yuan (for details, please refer to China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) in-depth report: the volume and price of nuclear power business rise together, and the wind and scenery business takes over and develops strength – 20220316).
The scenery business takes over and injects the growth power of the 14th five year plan. After the company acquired CNNC Huineng in 2020 and became the new energy industry platform of CNNC group, the new energy business ushered in leapfrog development. By the end of 2021, the total installed capacity of the company has reached 8.87gw. According to our calculation, by the end of 2025, the company’s installed capacity in operation may reach 30GW, so 21gw of grid connection will be added from 2022 to 2025, with an average annual increase of 5.2gw. Fengguang business is expected to take over the nuclear power business and inject growth momentum into the company’s 14th five year plan.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 80.37/110.72/11.783 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 16.6/12.0/11.3 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: electricity price decline; The progress of nuclear power construction is less than expected; Risk of policy change; The installed capacity of Fengguang was less than expected.
