\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Core view
Event: on March 28, the company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. 1q22 company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.630 billion yuan - 3.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% - 54%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 346 million yuan - 38600 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% - 57%.
Excellent operating data in the first quarter of 2022. Taking the median performance forecast, 1q22 company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company were + 52% / + 48% year-on-year respectively, and the net interest rate was 9.9%, with a month on month ratio of - 1.6pct / - 0.3pct respectively. 1) The growth rate of performance far exceeds that of the industry. From January to February 2022, the wholesale volume of T customers (China) / Geely / SAIC GM among the company's important customers was + 244% / - 4% / - 10% year-on-year. It is expected that t customers are still the main reason for the company's performance far exceeding that of the industry (China's passenger car sales in the first two months were + 14.8% year-on-year); 2) The company's 1q21 revenue / profit was + 100.8% / + 116.4% year-on-year respectively. The company's 1q22 achieved high growth under the high base and high gold content.
Looking forward to 2022, the performance flexibility can be expected
1. In 2021, the expansion of production capacity will be accelerated to promote growth. 1) Accelerated implementation of new factories: 4q21 company successively ushered in the completion of air suspension factory (one), suspension system factory (five) and aluminum subframe factory (the second and third factories). In 2022, the new capacity of the company is abundant; 2) Overweight Chongqing: in December 2021, the company signed an agreement with the people's Government of Shapingba District, Chongqing, and plans to invest about 1.5 billion yuan within five years to meet the rapidly growing order demand of new energy customers in Southwest China, especially in Chongqing as soon as possible; 3) Issuing convertible bonds to invest in capacity construction: the convertible bond raising plan (the first inquiry at present) was issued in November 2021. It is proposed to raise no more than 2.5 billion and invest in the construction of 4.8 million sets of lightweight chassis system projects.
2. The promotion of tier 0.5 marketing strategy is smooth and the customer value is deeply explored. 1) Continuously enrich the product line: in terms of thermal management, the company has successfully developed integrated heat pump assembly, electronic expansion valve, electronic water valve, electronic water pump, gas-liquid separator and other products, and the supporting amount of single vehicle reaches 6 Xiandai Investment Co.Ltd(000900) 0 yuan (1h21 thermal management revenue accounts for 12%). The company's line control products continue to iterate, and actively develop the air suspension business at the same time; 2) Strive to dig deep into customer value. In addition to covering t customers & global head traditional car enterprises, the company actively cooperates with rivian (the supporting value of single car is 11000), Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new forces of head car making to explore tier 0 Level 5 cooperation model.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 11.4 billion yuan, 15.54 billion yuan and 19.35 billion yuan in 2021, 2022 and 2023, with corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.05 billion yuan, 1.58 billion yuan and 2.13 billion yuan. Based on today's closing price, PE is 55.8 times, 37.1 times and 27.4 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the mitigation degree of chip shortage is lower than expected, the rise of raw material cost is higher than expected, and the recovery of automobile market demand is lower than expected
