\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 966 Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) )
In 2021, the revenue increased by 4.49% and the net profit increased by 20.8%. The growth rate of revenue and net profit increased significantly in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the annual revenue was 10.83 billion yuan (+ 4.5%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.11 billion yuan (+ 20.8%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 2.73 billion yuan (+ 11.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 640 million yuan (+ 37.2%). The high increase in net profit in 2021 is mainly due to the reduction of provision after the improvement of asset quality.
The improvement of revenue in the fourth quarter mainly benefited from the high growth of non interest income, of which the customer financing procedures increased by 68.6% in 2021. In 2021, the company’s net income from handling fees and commissions increased by 29.4%, and other non interest income increased by 9.5%, of which the single quarter in the fourth quarter increased by 53.5% and 49.2% respectively. In 2021, the total non interest income accounted for 30.4% of revenue, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year. In 2021, the handling fee income of the company achieved good growth, mainly due to the high increase of 68.6% in the handling fee income of agency financial management business, indicating the continuous deepening of the large retail strategy.
The net interest margin continued to narrow; The scale expanded steadily and the proportion of retail credit increased. In 2021, net interest income increased slightly by 0.1% and decreased by 0.2% compared with the first three quarters, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of net interest margin. The net interest margin in 2021 was 1.91%, down 31bps year-on-year and 4bps month on month compared with the first three quarters. In 2021, the company’s loan yield decreased by 49bps year-on-year under the guidance of the profit transfer policy, but the deposit interest payment rate only decreased slightly by 9bps, which is mainly due to the increase of deposit pressure in 2021, which further reflects the prominent problem of rigidity of deposit cost. In 2021, total assets increased by 16.7%, deposits and loans increased by 11.3% and 13.4% respectively. Among them, personal loans increased by 17.7%, and the proportion in total loans increased by 1.6 percentage points to 37.5% compared with the beginning of the year.
Asset quality indicators were comprehensively improved and provision coverage increased. The non-performing rate at the end of the period was 1.11%, which was 6 BPS lower than that at the end of September, and the non-performing balance was 2.9% lower than that at the end of September. At the same time, the deviation degree of non-performing at the end of the period (overdue 90 + / non-performing balance) was 65%, which was 13 percentage points lower than that at the end of June, and the recognition of non-performing was strengthened. The attention rate at the end of the period was 0.96%, down 10bps from the end of September, and the overdue rate was 0.84%, down 29bps from the end of June. The asset quality was excellent. Therefore, in 2021, the company’s accrued asset impairment loss decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, but the provision coverage at the end of the period reached 423%, an increase of 13 percentage points compared with the end of September.
Investment suggestion: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the “overweight” rating.
The net interest margin in 2021 is slightly lower than expected, but the asset quality is excellent, the large retail business continues to expand, and we maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.61 billion yuan / 4.15 billion yuan / 4.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2% / 15.1% / 14.8%, corresponding to diluted eps1 08 yuan / 1.25 yuan / 1.43 yuan. The corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 6.3x/5.4x/4.7x and Pb is 0.64x/0.59x/0.54x, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation is repeated, and the steady growth policy is less than expected, resulting in lower than expected economic recovery. 2. 2. The company’s large retail strategy and remote expansion were lower than expected.
