\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 966 Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) )
Highlights of the annual report: 1. Revenue accelerated recovery, and net profit increased by 21% year-on-year Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) annual revenue showed an accelerated recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The growth rate of net profit before provision also became positive under the year-on-year growth rate under the high base of last year. At the same time, with excellent asset quality, the provision provision remained stable, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit was consistent with that of revenue, achieving a high growth rate of more than 20%, which was also the best growth rate since 2013. 2. In the second half of the year, we increased the supply of retail business loans to drive good credit growth. Q4 increased by 4.97 billion in a single quarter, with a single quarter increase of 3.8 billion over the same period in 20 years, including 4.1 billion in retail credit in the second half of the year, which was the main factor supporting credit growth in the second half of the year, and the proportion of retail credit also increased to 17.8%. At the same time, resident deposits grew well, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, accounting for 42.5% of total deposits. 3. At the same time, the net other non interest income turned positive, driving the net non interest income to increase by 16.3% year-on-year. Among them, the net handling fee income increased by 29.7% year-on-year. The agency financial management business and agency business are the main support. The agency financial management income achieved 800 million in the whole year, and the total revenue of agency business and agency financial management accounted for more than 10% of the revenue, indicating the growth potential of the company’s wealth management business. 4. Both non-performing loans and concerned loans decreased, and the ability of risk offset was further strengthened. The non-performing rate has been reduced for five consecutive quarters, and the non-performing rate continues to improve significantly 6BP to 1.11% month on month, the best level since 2013. The pressure on non-performing loans will also be reduced in three quarters. The overdue rate and the proportion of loans overdue for more than 90 days continued to decline in the half year. The risk offset capacity was further consolidated, with the provision coverage rate of 423% in the fourth quarter, an increase of 12.7 percentage points month on month.
Insufficient annual report: the interest margin dragged down Q4’s net interest income by – 1.3% month on month. The single quarter annualized interest margin decreased by 5bp month on month, the asset side yield decreased by 3bp month on month, and the liability side interest payment rate increased by 2bp month on month. Among them, the asset side yield has continued to narrow since Q1 2021, which is expected to be mainly affected by the loan interest rate. From the perspective of structure, the proportion of credit in other quarters, including the proportion of high-yield retail loans, remains on the rise. It is expected that the company will respond to the policy of reducing fees and interests, increase support for the real economy, strengthen financial services for small and micro enterprises, and vigorously launch inclusive small and micro enterprise loans and personal business loans. The interest payment rate is expected to increase the deposit cost and the degree of periodization.
Investment suggestion: 2022e, 2023epb0 65X/0.58X； PE6. 19x / 5.33x (City Commercial Bank pb0.70x / 0.63x; pe5.96x / 5.27x), the company is deeply rooted in Suzhou, and the structure of the business division is unique. Relying on the qualification of the host bank of citizen card, we built a perfect system for benefiting the people, obtained a stable retail customer base, continued to deepen the retail strategy, and continued to increase the proportion of personal deposits and loans. Intermediary business has shown a good momentum of development, and the income of agency financial management and other businesses has increased rapidly. The risk of asset quality stock continues to be cleared, the non-performing assets have decreased for five consecutive quarters, the pressure on asset quality in the future has weakened, and the safety margin is high. The future transformation deserves attention, and it is recommended to keep track.
Note: according to the detailed data of the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the assumptions of key data such as scale growth, asset negative rate of return and credit cost, resulting in the adjustment of the profit forecast from 2022 to 2024 compared with the previous period. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 11.726/13.575 billion (the previous value was 12.543 billion and 14.45 billion); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.645 billion and 4.231 billion (the previous values were 3.285 billion and 3.735 billion).
Risk tip: the macro economy is facing downward pressure, and the operating performance is lower than expected.
