\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 760 Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued 2021 annual report and 2022q1 performance pre increase announcement on March 28. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 34.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.79%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent of 1.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.93%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue is expected to increase by about 29.00% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 509 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 47.50%, and the deduction of non net profit is expected to be about 459 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 58.67%.
The revenue continued to grow, and the deduction of non net profit increased significantly. On the revenue side, the single quarter revenue in 2021 was 5.790 billion yuan, 10.128 billion yuan, 8.999 billion yuan and 9.172 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.56%, 72.06%, 22.88% and 9.12%. Affected by the production progress, the growth rate of single quarter revenue was different. On the profit side, the net profit deducted from non parent company in a single quarter of 2021 was 289 million yuan, 596 million yuan, 491 million yuan and 220 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 9.34%, 207.27%, 64.48% and 20.70%. The growth rate of net profit deducted from non parent company was significantly higher than that of revenue, mainly due to the year-on-year decrease of 329 million yuan in government subsidies included in the current profit and loss.
Large contract liabilities highlight the high prosperity of the industry, and the performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Monetary capital was 21.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.16%, and the cash position continued to improve. Accounts receivable and notes receivable were 3.601 billion yuan and 02 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.26% and 94.65%, and the collection was in good condition. Contract liabilities amounted to 36.535 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 672.50%. The industry boom was high, and the company had sufficient orders on hand. Prepayments, accounts payable and inventories were 21.676 billion yuan, 9.701 billion yuan and 8.790 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 308545%, 5.26% and 13.00%. The company increased procurement and actively prepared goods, and its performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
The profitability has been steadily improved and the R & D investment has been continuously increased. In 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 9.76%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.53pct, and the net profit margin deducted was 4.68%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.24pct. The reform of military product pricing mechanism is advancing steadily. At the same time, the large volume of downstream military aircraft has a scale effect, and the profitability of the company is expected to be improved. The three fees accounted for 1.70%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.88pct, and the cost control was good. The R & D expenditure reached 663 million yuan, an increase of 130.34% year-on-year. The development of new equipment is accelerated, the R & D investment continues to increase, and the core competitiveness is expected to be further improved.
The performance of 2022q1 is expected to increase by 47.5%. In 2022q1, the company expects the operating revenue to increase by about 29.00% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 509 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 47.50%, and the deduction of non net profit is expected to be about 459 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 58.67%. In 2021q1, the company fully focused on the main responsibility and main business, fully promoted the construction of “legal Shenfei, digital Shenfei and lean Shenfei”, adhered to the plan traction and process drive under the situation of increasing scientific research and production tasks, and laid a solid foundation for completing the annual production and operation tasks with high quality.
The only target of A-share fighter aircraft, with abundant momentum for performance growth. Compared with the U.S. and Russian armies, the number of Chinese military aircraft is small and backward from generation to generation. With the iteration of Air Force fighters and the construction of domestic aircraft carriers, China’s military aircraft market has entered a period of rapid growth. The company is the main research and development base of China’s aviation defense equipment, and is expected to directly benefit from the large volume of military aircraft in the 14th five year plan. China’s civil aviation market has broad prospects. The company is a participant in ARJ21 and C919 projects. With the smooth progress of domestic large aircraft, its future performance is expected to increase.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s revenue in 202224 to be 43.024 billion yuan, 56.186 billion yuan and 72.200 billion yuan respectively. Due to the higher than expected growth rate of the company’s R & D investment, we reduce the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 to 2.383 billion yuan and 3.221 billion yuan (original 2.569 billion yuan and 3.340 billion yuan), increase the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to 4.346 billion yuan, and the adjusted profit forecast corresponds to EPS of 1.22 yuan, 1.64 yuan and 2.22 yuan respectively, and PE of 48.43x respectively 35.83x and 26.55x, the company is currently the only listed target of Chinese fighter aircraft, which will fully benefit from the large-scale volume of military aircraft and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the progress of military aircraft train loading is less than expected; New product development is not as expected; The reform of military product pricing is not as expected; The risk that the performance forecast and valuation judgment do not meet the expectations.
