\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 893 Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) )
① the flagship rk3588 is launched, with performance comparable to that of the international flagship model, and has entered the front line. Released in December 21, it adopts 8nm process, built-in arm4-core A76 and 4-core a55cpu, 4-core armg610gpu and self-developed 6T computing power NPU. It is characterized by high computing power, high-performance multimedia processing and high scalability. It is suitable for flat panel, armpc, intelligent cockpit, multi camera, intelligent NVR, intelligent large screen / multi screen applications, cloud services and edge computing, VR / AR and other applications. We believe that: first, in some areas where high-end products are out of stock, such as security, rk3588 lacks competitive products in China, so it can replace the high-end market; Second, in some currently dominant fields, such as intelligent cockpit, Qualcomm has higher pricing, which makes the company’s products cost-effective. When downstream customers need to optimize and balance the supply chain, they can enter automotive electronics; Third, in more other fields, focus on the high-end, cooperate with the medium and low-end layout, and seize the share.
② actively adjust the capacity planning, and the future capacity growth can be expected. From the perspective of supply, the global foundry industry has been tight in the past 21 years. In the face of supply shortage, the company has also actively carried out supply chain reconstruction, and has begun to layout in multiple processes, with balanced planning layout at 22nm, 14nm / 12NM, 8nm / 7Nm, etc; According to the contents of the 21st Annual Report, the company’s IC production was 185969200, with a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. Under the background of tight production capacity throughout the year, it reflects the ability of supply chain management.
③ from the perspective of price, under the background of substantial price increase in the past 21 years, in order to maintain the ecology of customers, the company only offset the rise of upstream costs and maintained a balanced gross profit margin of about 40%, without excessive price increase in order to earn short-term profits, which eventually hurt customers; It is expected that the mature process will be tight until 23 years. We expect that the company will face little pressure on price reduction in 22 years.
④ continue to explore new markets, and multi scenario markets will be opened one after another. At present, we have basically completed the construction of product matrix in security monitoring, industry, automobile and other directions. We expect to see breakthroughs in these fields in 22 years.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company remain unchanged from the previous forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.348 billion yuan, 5.868 billion yuan and 7.335 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 912 million yuan, 1.272 billion yuan and 1.562 billion yuan respectively. From 2022 to 2024, the corresponding EPS is 2.18 yuan, 3.05 yuan and 3.74 yuan respectively, and the corresponding closing price of 89.99 yuan on March 28, 2022, PE is 41.19 times, 29.52 times and 24.04 times respectively. Considering the long-term broad market of aiot track, the continuous development of the company’s product categories, the continuous development of customers and the continuous improvement of the supply situation caused by the continuous move of product process to a higher level, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: risks caused by the continuous shortage of global production capacity; New product promotion is less than expected risk; The risk of continued macroeconomic deterioration; Risks brought by the intensification of Global trade frictions.
