\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 818 Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) )
Key investment points
Ekornes sustained high growth, stimulated growth, released adverse factors, and established an inflection point between operation and performance
From January to February of 22, the income increased rapidly, and Ekornes contributed the main increment. From January to February, in the face of repeated epidemics and the uncertainty of the economic environment, the company overcame difficulties, solidly promoted various work, improved the overall operation and maintained a good growth trend. We expect that the high performance increase is mainly due to: 1) overseas: Ekornes, facing the pressure of continuous rising costs, raised prices by 10% in 21 years, and 22q1 price increase measures were implemented to fully cover the rising costs and promote the rapid growth of revenue and profits. In addition, while the sales of comfortable chairs grew steadily and actively expanded the Chinese market, the company actively created the second growth curve. The supporting products grew rapidly relying on stressless’s strong brand power and mature store layout. Svane actively carried out design upgrading to improve the cost performance of products; 2) China: January February is the off-season for home furnishing, with the Spring Festival of 22 years earlier. At present, the Chinese business accounts for a relatively low proportion of the company’s revenue. It is expected that the incremental contribution of performance from January to February will be less.
The adverse factors are fully released. It is expected that the strong growth trend will continue in March, and the inflection point of the company’s operation and performance will be established. At present, the epidemic situation in China is becoming more and more serious, and the Qumei business of the company may be under pressure, but it will not change when the proportion of income and profit is relatively low. Driven by Ekornes, the overall operation of the company is upward, and the performance is expected to continue to increase high in March. 21q3-q4 company is faced with multiple adverse factors such as shutdown due to the epidemic in Southeast Asia, impairment of Evergrande, rising cost of raw materials and shortage of shipping resources, and its performance is slightly under pressure. At present, on the one hand, the production capacity of overseas factories is restored, on the other hand, the price increase is implemented to deal with the rising cost of raw materials, and the order revenue is transformed smoothly after the gradual enrichment of shipping resources. On the whole, with the abundant growth momentum of Ekornes and China’s business, the upward inflection point of the company’s operation and performance has been established.
Growth at home and abroad, decrease in financial expenses and release profit elasticity
Ekornes: category, market and customer expansion drive growth. In terms of category expansion, relying on stressless’s top brand strength and global channel resources, the company actively develops soft sofas and other supporting products. At the same time, the svane mattress factory is moved to Lithuania to improve the product cost performance, and the company designs according to the characteristics of key markets in Europe and America, so as to create the second growth curve of the company; In terms of customer development, the company has successfully obtained Costco and other large customers with img brand for 21 years. In the future, it will continue to expand other large customers and actively increase the volume of cooperation with existing customers; In terms of market development, stressless China’s retail store model is excellent and reproducible. With the increase of market investment in 22 years, the store expansion and revenue growth in 22 years will be further accelerated.
China Qumei: direct franchising makes concerted efforts to innovate and grow its business. The company relies on the private traffic operation and informatization ability to effectively improve the operation efficiency of Direct stores. The same store of Direct stores has increased by 40% in 21 years, and the company will continue to promote in 22 years. In addition, with the gradual release of capital pressure, the company is expected to enter a new high-speed store opening cycle in 22 years to promote the growth of franchise retail channels. The innovative business continues to grow rapidly, and the partner model ensures the growth momentum.
Financial expenses: it is estimated that the interest expenses in 21-23 years will be 2 / 1.3 / 0.6 billion yuan respectively, releasing the performance elasticity.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 5.53/6.56/7.44 billion yuan in 21-23 years, with a year-on-year increase of 29% / 19% / 14% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 / 50 / 690 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 143% / 99% / 38% respectively. Corresponding to the current pe28 / 14 / 10x, the company has sufficient growth momentum, welcomed the upward turning point of operation and performance in 22 years, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Ekornes China’s expansion is less than expected; The demand of overseas market has declined; The progress of debt replacement is less than expected
