\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 612 Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) )
2022q1 net profit of 140150 million, an increase of about 30% year-on-year. The company issued an announcement on the pre increase of performance in the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2022 will be 140150 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.67% – 36.79%. According to the announcement on the advance increase of net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 560600 million in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is RMB 86-126 million. According to the median estimation, the profit of the company in 2022q1 increased by 36.79% month on month.
The price of prebaked anode rose, and the profitability of the company thickened again. The ex factory price of 2022q1 prebaked anode increased from 5000 yuan / ton to 6200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 5345 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.7% month on month and 46% year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, the pace of resumption of production in China’s electrolytic aluminum market has accelerated, and the market price of pre baked anode in China has risen rapidly. The average profit price per ton of Q1 prebaked anode is 420 yuan / ton, and the current profit level per ton is as high as 1200 yuan / ton. According to the calculation of the company’s net profit of 560600 million in 2021 corresponding to the right production capacity of 1.48 million tons, the net profit of the company’s single ton pre baked anode is 380400 yuan / ton, and the profitability of the industry leader is thickened again.
New projects will be put into operation in a centralized manner, and the output will meet the period of rapid growth. In mid-2021, the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a pre baked anode project of Yunnan sotong phase I was successfully put into operation, which led to a significant year-on-year increase in Q1 output in 2022. In the second half of the year, Yunnan sotong phase II 300000 t / a (65% equity) and Sichuan 350000 T / a (60% equity) were successively put into operation. In 2022, the company’s total pre baked anode capacity will increase from 2.52 million tons to 3.17 million tons, and the scale cost advantage and industry leading position will continue to be consolidated.
During the year, electrolytic aluminum was accelerated to resume production and put into operation, driving the continuous boom in the price of prebaked anode. According to the statistics of Baichuan information, as of the week of March 27, China’s electrolytic aluminum had resumed production capacity of 1.68 million tons, with the remaining recoverable capacity of 807000 tons and the remaining available capacity of 1.76 million tons. The total capacity to be added is 2.567 million tons. By the end of the year, China’s electrolytic aluminum operational capacity will increase from the current 39.258 million tons to 41.825 million tons. According to the net consumption of 400kg / T prebaked anode per ton of electrolytic aluminum, the company’s 650000 ton capacity increase corresponds to the production demand of 1.63 million tons of electrolytic aluminum. There is still a gap in market demand. The prebaked anode price and the company’s profitability are expected to remain high during the re production period of electrolytic aluminum.
Investment suggestion: the company’s high-quality production capacity layout ensures scale expansion and stable production. Electrolytic aluminum will accelerate the resumption of production and production during the year, driving the continuous boom in the price of prebaked anode. The performance is expected to improve again in 2022. We expect that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 9.262 billion yuan, 11.633 billion yuan and 14.809 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 587 million yuan, 834 million yuan and 1.038 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 128, 1.81 and 2.26 yuan / share, corresponding to the PE level of 15.5, 10.9 and 8.8 times respectively at the current price, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the supply and demand of prebaked anode market exceeds the expected change risk; The company’s new production capacity landing and subsequent planned production capacity construction are less than expected risks.
