\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 066 Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) )
Matters:
According to the company’s 2021 annual performance report, in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 23.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent of 610 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent of 300 million. At the same time, the company announced a dividend plan to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
The net profit in 2021 was lower than expected, and the market share increased steadily. In 2021, the company achieved 41828 passenger cars, with a year-on-year increase of 0.17%. The gross profit margin of the company’s bus products was 18.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year in 2020. The annual net profit was 610 million, and the company terminated the implementation plan of equity incentive. Affected by repeated epidemics, changes in new energy subsidy policies and the triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening in China’s economic development, the total demand for medium and large buses in 2021 decreased by 15.3% year-on-year. The sales volume of medium and large buses in 2021 was 33467, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, the market share reached 38.2%, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points, of which the seat car market accounted for 49.49%, an increase of 0.98 percentage points; The school bus share was 68.86%, an increase of 6.99 percentage points.
Overseas sales maintained a growth trend, and the export volume of new energy buses exceeded 1000. In 2021, the company sold 4916 overseas passenger cars, with a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, of which the export volume of new energy passenger cars exceeded 1000, reaching 1076, with a significant year-on-year increase, mainly benefiting from the delivery of overseas orders previously obtained. The unit price and gross profit margin of the company’s exported passenger cars were higher than those in the Chinese market. Benefiting from the relative stability of China’s bus production and its industrial chain, the company strives to achieve an export growth of more than 20% in 2022.
The decline of new energy subsidies in 2023 is expected to promote the growth of new energy bus sales in 2022. 2022 is the last year of the new energy bus subsidy. Affected by the decline of the subsidy, the company’s new energy bus is expected to usher in growth in the second half of 2022, bringing incremental performance to the company. The company has outstanding advantages in the field of fuel cell buses and mature products. The company sold 63 fuel cell buses in 2021, but the fuel cell buses were in the gap period of subsidy policy in 2021, and the subsequent company’s fuel cell bus business has great growth certainty.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) is a leading enterprise in China’s bus industry. The company’s medium and large bus market is basically stable, the market share is high, and the development of new energy buses is effective. In 2022, the company’s new energy buses may be affected by the rise of upstream raw materials, and the profitability of new energy buses will be under pressure. In addition, the repeated epidemic in China will also have a certain impact on the demand for Chinese buses, We adjusted the company’s performance forecast and estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 was RMB 820 million / 980 million respectively (the original profit forecast was RMB 1706 / 2146 million), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was predicted to be RMB 1.16 billion. In view of the impact of various adverse factors on the bus industry in 2022, the company’s rating was lowered from “recommended” to “neutral”.
Risk tips:
1) the recovery of passenger car market demand is less than expected. The financial pressure of local governments and people’s fear of bus travel caused by the long duration of the epidemic may lead to the demand for buses, especially the long recovery time of large buses.
2) the price rise of upstream raw materials is difficult to transmit to the terminal. The proportion of bus battery cost and the absolute amount of battery are high. It is expected that the price increase per unit of electricity in 2022 will be similar to that of the passenger car industry, but the smoothness of bus cost transmission may be weaker than that of private cars, resulting in further deterioration of the profits of bus enterprises.
3) the export sales volume of the company is lower than expected. The acquisition of new export orders caused by geopolitical risks is uncertain.
4) the intelligent evolution of travel field accelerates, resulting in increasingly fierce competition in travel service field, and the bus market may be adversely affected.
