\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 298 Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) )
Event:
The company released its 2021 annual report. The annual revenue was 10.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.50%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.59%, and the net profit deducted from non-profit was 1.060 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.14%, and eps1 It is proposed to distribute a dividend of RMB 59 / share (including tax of RMB 5 / share).
Key investment points:
The cost is at a high level, and the profit growth rate in the fourth quarter is lower than expected. The company’s revenue in the fourth quarter was 3.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, the net profit was 291 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%, and the deduction of non net profit was 161 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.01%. The company has raised prices since October, but it is not obvious on the profit side. The company’s Q4 net profit margin was 9.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.89 percentage points, and the improvement was not obvious compared with 8.06% of Q3. If the equity incentive fee of RMB 52 million is added back, the company will basically complete the equity incentive target in 2021.
Export business has recovered, and the scale of production and marketing has ranked second in the world. In terms of products, the annual yeast business revenue increased by 15.10%, and the sugar business contributed greatly, with a revenue increase of 68.39%, of which the revenue of Q4 yeast and sugar business increased by 7.9% / 68.6% respectively. Shipping costs rose in the fourth quarter, and the appreciation of RMB and price increase had a certain impact on sales. Throughout the year, China’s and foreign revenues increased by 22.3% / 12.0% respectively year-on-year, of which Q4 increased by 21.5% / 15.5% respectively, and overseas business recovered. In 2021, the company’s total yeast output reached 316000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, of which ye output exceeded 100000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 22.9%. The company has become the world’s largest supplier of Ye and the second largest supplier of dry yeast, accounting for nearly 60% in the Chinese market and more than 15% in the world. Its production and marketing scale has ranked second in the world. The company proposed a revenue target of 12.6 billion yuan in 2022 and raised the revenue target of 2025 from 15-17 billion yuan to 20 billion yuan.
The cost pressure has increased significantly, and it is expected that the price increase effect will appear and the price of molasses will fall in the second half of the year. Due to the increasingly tight supply of molasses in China, the price of molasses has increased greatly. At the same time, the purchase price of other auxiliary materials, energy cost and shipping expenses have increased in varying degrees. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was only 27.34%, down 6.7 percentage points year-on-year. In the whole year, the cost of yeast raw materials increased by 37.08% and the fuel cost increased by 20.81%, both higher than the sales growth rate of 11.28%. Among them, the increase in the cost of yeast raw materials resulted in an additional increase in operating costs of 604 million yuan (deducting the factor of the same proportion of sales growth). Although the price increase began in October 2021, the transmission of the price increase will take about 2 months, and the cost will be under pressure in the short term. The price of molasses remains high in the pressing season of 2021 / 2022. After the Spring Festival, the price of molasses continues to rise (the current price is 1640 yuan / ton), and the cost pressure this year is still large. Due to the base problem, the annual performance is expected to show a trend of low before high.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as a leading enterprise in the yeast industry, the company has accelerated its production capacity layout under the situation of increasing demand for yeast and its derivatives at home and abroad. In the future, it is expected to further improve its market share at home and abroad and continuously consolidate its leading position. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 to be RMB 1.3861661/1.992 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 6% / 20% / 20%, corresponding to eps1.5% 65 / 1.97/2.37 yuan / share, pe26 / 22 / 18 times, with a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; 2) The price of raw materials rises too fast; 3) The production capacity is lower than expected; 4) Political turmoil in overseas markets; 5) Repeated overseas epidemics have hindered the project; 6) Exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
