\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Key investment points
Introduction: in recent years, the company has attached importance to the incubation of medium and high-end new products and the cultivation of differentiated competitive advantages, and has initially had the support of the bottom elements of expansion; From the company's goal of 10000 stores, to the expansion of sales team and the marketization of incentive mechanism, and then to the goal of 14001600 stores in 21 years, the company is gradually realizing its growth attribute. The industry repair is gradually approaching. With the high proportion of Direct stores and sticky members, the company is expected to take the lead in showing good performance flexibility. It is suggested to focus on it.
The industry is expected to gradually usher in the inflection point of travel recovery, waiting for the company to release the performance elasticity, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. The epidemic prevention policy at the industry end has been continuously optimized, and the minor disease treatment, discharge standard and isolation after discharge have been adjusted. At the same time, the domestic covid-19 oral drug vv116 has entered the phase III clinical research, which is expected to accelerate the listing. Under the guidance of stabilizing the economy + stabilizing the market, the main line of recovery is expected to be strengthened. Considering that the proportion of Direct stores of the company is higher than that of other hotels, and according to our calculation, RevPAR of Direct stores is expected to increase by 4% for every 1% increase; Superposition company always adheres to the construction of membership system, bringing more viscous consumer groups, which is expected to promote the repair performance of the same store to be better than the industry and show the flexibility of performance.
The goal of ten thousand stores in three years has been gradually promoted, with the help of the expansion of internal developers and the market-oriented incentive mechanism. Despite the disturbance of the epidemic in 21 years, there are still 1418 stores. 1) WanDian aims to usher in the first year of growth: in the past 20 years, the epidemic has accelerated the liquidation of single hotels, and the hotel group has shown operational advantages. The three hotel groups have put forward future growth goals. The company plans to open hotels to the level of 10000 within three years, mainly in the form of light assets expansion (light assets expansion accounts for 95% +), and the proportion of medium and high-end hotels in WanDian is expected to reach 30%. 2) Gradual optimization of internal management: in the past 20 years, the company has injected kinetic energy into the future expansion of the company by improving the salary level of sales personnel (increasing the Commission level of successfully signed and opened projects by 30% ~ 40%) and expanding the number of sales personnel (expanding the recruitment from 200 to 300 + and the number of developers is expected to further increase with the recovery of the epidemic). 3) Although the epidemic situation is disturbed, the growth trend is still: in the past 21 years, after the local Chinese New Year and the local disturbance of the epidemic from July to August, the company has begun to spread in a large area by the end of the year. The company has still guaranteed to open 1418 stores throughout the year and achieve the previous target of 14001600 stores. Due to the national spread of the epidemic in early 22, we believe that the completion time of the company's three-year goal of 10000 stores may be delayed, However, in terms of the number of pipelines of the company (as of 21q3, the number of contracted and unopened stores of the company reached 1838, a record high), and the trend of accelerating the opening of stores in the future, we believe that the exhibition speed of the company is expected to reach more than 20% every year in 22-23 years.
Sinking market space is considerable, light management, although the volume is small, but the profitability is good. The distribution of China's hotel industry shows a significant medium long tail. In 20 years, the number of Hotels with less than 70 rooms in China is about 210000, accounting for 76%, and the theoretical sinking space is still tens of times. The company's economic brand was launched in 2002. It has been deeply rooted in the sinking market for more than 20 years. It has a deep understanding of the needs of low-line consumers and small monomer owners. The company launched a light management mode for the sinking market, and the expansion during the epidemic period of 20-21 temporarily took light management as the main mode (the net stores opened in 20 years accounted for 65% +). Compared with the standard brand, it has lower requirements for hotel property and low initial investment cost (the transformation cost of Huayi is as low as 20015000 yuan / room), while the group's member resources and management experience are significantly empowered, which are welcomed by the owners. According to AP news agency, the average performance of individual owners joining cloud hotel can be improved by 26%. According to the company's previous communication, the soft brand takerate is about 7%, and the profit margin is expected to be in line with the standard store. We calculate the company's soft brand space. The hotel market with less than 70 rooms may bring an additional Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) million performance to the company, and light management is also expected to make an incremental contribution.
Accelerate the shaping of product competitiveness and provide bottom support for growth. 1) Differentiated competition of mature models: the company has a rich matrix of medium and high-end products. Mature models such as home business travel form differentiated competition with other medium and high-end brands in investment cost, customer group positioning and sinking layout: the amount of early investment is small (the cost of a single room is only 8 Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co.Ltd(000010) 0000 yuan, less than 120000 yuan in the whole season), and the cost performance is higher. In addition, business travel focuses on the sinking market, with relatively lower house prices. The number of stores in first tier cities (about 14%) is lower than that in the whole season (nearly 20%), and with business travel still upgrading iteratively, it is expected to continue to encrypt in the future. 2) Excellent product incubation ability is expected to accelerate the enclosure of horse racing: the company established a medium and high-end business division in 16 years and continuously launched new brands to meet the market demand, such as Puyin and Fanman in 16 years, yunik in 17 years, Baili Aishan brand in 18 years, Yifan, a new brand jointly built with Chunqiu group and cooperated with Kaiyue hotel in 19 years, Aifan, a high-quality non-standard brand in 20 years, and Wanxin Zhige, a medium and high-end hotel brand in 21 years, And there are corresponding store opening plans (Puyin plans to open 100 stores in five years and Yifan plans to sign 300 stores in five years). After the model runs through in the future, it is expected to further drive the growth of the company. 3) the goal of the high-end and luxury stores is to accomplish the goal: the first brigade group, which is committed to the competition of the industry, promises to inject Xiang Yinggao star hotels into the listed companies, including the management rights of two hotels in Universal Studios. In addition, the company established anno management company in 21 years and appointed the former president of Wyndham Greater China as CEO. The gene of high-star hotel is expected to further enable the company to achieve 40-50% of the medium and high-end in the three-year increment goal of 10000 stores.
Investment suggestion: the short-term industry recovery is gradual, the proportion of Direct stores of the company is relatively high, and the performance flexibility is considerable, which is expected to drive the valuation repair of the company. In the medium and long term, we believe that the company attaches importance to the incubation of medium and high-end new products and the cultivation of differentiated competitive advantages, or initially has the support of the bottom elements of expansion; From the company's goal of 10000 stores, to the expansion of sales team and the marketization of incentive mechanism, and then to the goal of 14001600 stores in 21 years, the company is gradually promoting the goal, or is expected to raise the valuation center. According to the company's express report, the company achieved a performance of 56 million yuan, turning losses year-on-year; We expect the company's performance in 22-23 years to be 504 / 1.01 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 806% / 100%, corresponding to pe26x in 23 years, which is rated as "buy" for the first time.
Risk tip: China's covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated, drug research and development is less than expected, macroeconomic fluctuations, expansion speed is less than expected, industry competition is intensified, and overseas business recovery is less than expected
