\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 33 Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) )
Core conclusion
The industry has accelerated the de industrialization of production capacity, and the trend of focusing on the head is becoming more and more significant. The epidemic disturbance superimposed on the in-depth adjustment of the industry, and the production capacity of China's TV drama industry continued to be cleared. In 2021, the number of Chinese TV dramas recorded decreased by 26% year-on-year and the number of distribution licenses obtained decreased by 4% year-on-year. At the same time, the market concentration is increasing. According to the disclosure of the State Administration of radio, film and television, there were only 41 institutions holding "a certificate" from 2021 to 2023, down 44% from 2019. The Matthew effect in the drama industry is significant. The head drama is a sharp weapon for online video platform members to innovate and retain. Boutique dramas are still scarce resources. Under the background of shrinking industry procurement budget, the phenomenon of focusing on the head may be more prominent.
The company's leading position in the drama industry is stable and has large space to go to sea. As a leader in China's TV series industry, the company has a continuous and stable high-quality content output capacity, and the number of TV series filed / obtained / broadcast each year ranks first in the industry. It mainly benefits from the rare industrial production system in the industry to ensure the quantity and quality of the project. At the same time, the big data system of the subsidiary kerton is enabled to improve the probability of project success. At present, the company's repertoire continues to expand its influence overseas. Long song line has set an overseas sales record for domestic dramas, and many works have won international awards. At present, the unit price of domestic dramas at sea is still at a relatively low level, and the overall sea price has great room for improvement, thus promoting the improvement of the profit center of international business.
The film business has emerged and actively explored the meta universe. In 2021, the film "assassinating the novelist", which was mainly invested and controlled by the company, performed well, and the cumulative box office reached the threshold of one billion, which helped the company's film sales business in 2021h1 increase by 1005%, and the film sales business emerged. In the past 22 years, the company has rich film reserves, bundled with excellent creative teams, and the overall market share is expected to increase. The company actively explores the meta universe world, arranges NFT, virtual image, virtual shooting and other fields, and has the largest permanent copyright Library of film and television dramas in China. In the era of Internet 3.0, the copyright value of the company is becoming increasingly prominent.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 426 / 476 / 548 million respectively, yoy + 6.7% / 11.7% / 15.2%. Using the relative valuation method, the company is given 27xpe for 22 years, with the corresponding target price of 6.68 yuan. It is given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: policy supervision risk, increased market competition risk, star artist moral hazard risk
