Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock index plunged rapidly, and then the index bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by financial stocks, the Shanghai index once pulled up. However, the weakness of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index was prominent, resulting in the rise and fall of the Shanghai index. In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes continued the pattern of strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen, and the gem also ushered in a new low in the day, while the Shanghai index barely turned red.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the Shanghai stock index rebounded rapidly after covering the gap in the early stage. However, due to the great influence of authorized heavy stocks of Shanghai Stock Exchange, the market as a whole was still weak on Monday, with a significant number of losers. The market lacked profit-making effect, so it should be more cautious in operation any rebound in the downward trend should not catch up with and participate in. Waiting for the panic point in the market adjustment and bottom reading is the appropriate operation strategy .
From a technical point of view, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the current stock index is in the process of secondary correction, and investors have a heavy wait-and-see mentality with money. The trading volume of the two cities is 870 billion yuan, with significant characteristics of stock game, frequent hot rotation and difficult short-term operation. It is expected that the stock index is more likely to maintain inter regional shocks in the near future. It is expected that the possibility of small short-term consolidation of the Shanghai stock index is greater, and the possibility of small short-term shock and downward exploration of the gem is greater it is suggested that investors should wait and see in the short term, and the middle line should continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips .
As for the future market, Guosheng Securities pointed out that the worst time of A-Shares is gradually passing, and the high probability of index low this year has appeared. Considering that the current market is still in the stage of shock and bottom grinding repair, and the reversal still needs to wait, after the second bottom probing, the A shares will be filled. With the introduction and effectiveness of more stable growth policies, the capital may return to the stock market, the pessimism is also expected to be repaired, and the index can return to the upward trend. It is suggested to maintain the balanced allocation of growth and value in investment .
In terms of operation strategy, before the effective breakthrough in the market, we should still control the overall position and be suitable for low absorption , “steady growth” will become the main logic driving the operation of the market. We should pay attention to undervalued and low configured banks, real estate, building materials and other traditional infrastructure, wind power photovoltaic and other new infrastructure. It is suggested to properly layout theme sectors such as chemical fertilizer and epidemic specific drugs in combination with performance and cost performance.
In the macro aspect, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that paid attention to the Politburo meeting and economic and profit indicators in April. In the long run, A-Shares have been in a position of high cost performance from the economic perspective , although the year-on-year economic data from January to February exceeded market expectations, or due to the impact of the year-on-year base, it could not reflect the real economic situation. The decline of medium and long-term loan growth and the decline of some leading indicators of real estate show that the end of the economy may not yet come. In April, we need to pay more attention to various economic indicators in March.
earnings face , April is also the annual report of listed companies and the intensive disclosure period of a quarterly report. With the gradual disclosure of earnings reports, the prosperity of various industries will be further confirmed. At present, the full A valuation bubble has been squeezed. In the long run, it is already in a relatively high price position. The importance of value investing is uplifting, coincides with the intensive disclosure period of financial reports, and can be used to assess the value of stocks with high profitability and high cost performance. However, the transmission effect of steady growth and the continuous upward price of upstream resource products need more time to determine the degree of profit damage to the listed companies in the middle and lower reaches.
from the perspective of policy the convening of the finance committee meeting makes the policy more clear and establishes positive signals, but the follow-up policy support will determine the rebound time and space. We can pay attention to the convening of the Politburo meeting in April.
In terms of operational strategy, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) pointed out that anti inflation and steady growth are still the main theme . Recently, the market mainly shows the following characteristics and changes: 1) inflation is still the core variable affecting large categories of assets, and US stocks have won significantly in anti inflation industries such as energy and materials; 2) Recently, US bond yields have risen rapidly, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed significantly, which has raised concerns about capital outflow and insufficient space for follow-up monetary policy; 3) The impact of the epidemic continues, but the inflection point may be approaching; 4) The real estate policy has been significantly relaxed recently.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities mentioned that the three main lines of steady growth, upstream inflation and consumption have been killed since the beginning of the year , and the investment should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and EPS improvement, and be optimistic about steady growth, upstream inflation and consumption. Key recommended directions: 1) steady growth of the line, optimistic about the g-end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 2) Upstream inflation line, optimistic: coal, chemical resources; 3) consumption line, optimistic about the reverse and stability of profits: pig, Baijiu, etc.
Aijian Securities believes that the market will rebound in the second quarter, and the opportunity is better than . The strategy is to look for undervalued varieties from the perspective of valuation and performance. From the perspective of opportunity, we are optimistic about the valuation repair process of consumption and growth sectors. Such as electronics, food and beverage, electrical equipment, automobile, household appliances, mechanical equipment, national defense industry and other industries. At the same time, there are still active market transactions and thematic trading opportunities, such as new energy and environmental protection related to carbon reduction, big data from east to west, etc. at the same time, various concepts related to independent control will be important thematic opportunities in the market.
