Key investment points
Core view: the bottom setting policy of the national Standing Committee and the short-term fluctuation of interest rates. According to previous data, the epidemic is expected to be controlled in half a month to one month after the high level. This round of epidemic is currently in the high platform stage, but there are many infection cases and a wide range of radiation. It is expected that it will take some time to be controlled. The impact on the bond market is still positive, but it may be expected that it has been fully reflected in the interest rate. The end of the credit easing policy may continue to ferment, especially the warm news of the real estate market, but it remains to be seen whether it can lead to a significant improvement in real estate confidence and credit easing. Attention should be paid to real estate sales and real estate corporate bond financing. In terms of monetary policy, we believe that the easing window has not been closed, but at present, there are many influencing factors, and the risk of short-term game monetary easing is high. First, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time and continued to be biased towards hawks, the oil price rebounded again, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and so on, which not only affected the economy but also the capital market. The national regular meeting mentioned that preventing and correcting the introduction of policies that are not conducive to market expectations has a great restriction on the application of the broad monetary policy in the short term. Second, at present, it is not long before the reduction of reserve requirement in December and interest rate in January. It is difficult to judge the impact of poor credit in February and the disturbance of the epidemic in March on the economy and the sustainability of the epidemic, and the observation period needs to be extended. Third, under the open market operation, the medium and short-term capital of the banking system was stable in March, the money market interest rate fluctuated narrowly around the 7-day reverse repo interest rate, and the medium and long-term capital was not particularly tight. On the whole, considering the balance of multiple factors, the quasi interest rate cut has not reached a particularly critical period. After the fermentation of short-term benefits, the market may return to the long-term logic and maintain the judgment that interest rates rise in the medium term but fluctuate in the short term. In terms of strategy, it can still maintain a certain leverage, but it should not be excessive; Pay attention to the opportunities in the promotion of wide credit policy, real estate sales data and policies, March economic data and so on; Focus on 3Y in term; Focus on varieties with better relative valuation and absolute valuation, such as short-term interbank certificates of deposit and 3y-5y secondary capital bonds.
Market review: last week, the yield of 10Y treasury bond rose only slightly by 0.48bp, with the short end rising and the curve flattening. The fermentation of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and Jilin has driven the high level of the national epidemic situation. Superimposed on the poor credit in February, it continues to disturb the economic expectation in the first quarter. Since 2015, the economic operation in the first quarter has basically set the tone of the whole year's economy. Therefore, the epidemic situation in March has a medium-term impact on the economic disturbance. On the 21st, the national Standing Committee relayed the financial committee to set the policy bottom again and put forward that the policy of stabilizing economic operation should be introduced and implemented as soon as possible, resulting in the expectation of medium-term credit relief. The above incremental information was empty for the bond market, resulting in the yield of 10Y treasury bond rising 0.45bp to 2.7972%. The failure to reduce the LPR interest rate has certain restrictions on the expectation of easing. The national standing committee will again mention not to engage in "flood irrigation" to maintain the moderate growth of social finance, but the exchange rate and oil price make the monetary policy more tangled. Last week, the central bank basically locked the capital interest rate near the reverse repo interest rate through open market operation, but the bond market sentiment was not high. The proportion of R001 repo was reduced to less than 85%. The market waited for the attitude of monetary policy to be clarified again. The short end interest rate has a large upward range and the curve is flattened, of which 1y has an upward trend of 5.26bp to 2.1632%.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation is better than expected; Substantial adjustment of real estate policy; Inflation and exchange rate restrict monetary policy for longer than expected; Economic data performed well; Energy crisis, etc.
