In March 28th, the concept of Baijiu dropped, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and other stocks opened up at a time of over 5%. As of the closing, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) fell 6.42%, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) fell 5.58%, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) fell 4.49%, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) fell 4.37%, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) fell 3.81%, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell 1.73%.
Judging from the trend of stock prices, Baijiu has been "weak" for a long time. Since the beginning of this year, the 19 stocks of the CSI Baijiu index have all declined, except for the Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) share price fluctuation. The 18 stocks have all fallen, and 15 stocks have fallen by more than 20%, accounting for 83.33%.
The grand occasion of "taking medicine and drinking" has long been absent. When can the Baijiu decline?
share prices fell, foreign capital outflow
Last week, the food and beverage index fell 3.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 25th in the primary sub industry Today, the index still leads, CSI Baijiu index fell 3.24%, and 19 stocks fell all the same except Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) share price closed yesterday. Wind Baijiu and wine index fell 2.71%, while 32 stocks rose by only 0.62% of Gansu Mogao Industrial Development Co.Ltd(600543) . China Merchants Baijiu fund LOF fell below 1 yuan today, the net value dropped to 0.996 yuan, and the net closing value was 1.007 yuan.
In fact, this decline has been going on for a long time.
Wind data show that the 19 Baijiu index of the Chinese liquor index has dropped by 23.38% since the beginning of this year, and 7 stocks have fallen by over 30%, of which Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) has the most powerful drop, 46.63% down, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) ranking, 38.21%, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) 32.37%, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 32.09%, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 32.37%. According to the rough calculation of weighted average, the total evaporated market value of the above 19 stocks since the beginning of the year is as high as 1.76 trillion yuan.
The other side of the decline in share prices is the departure of institutions. As early as 2021, many star funds that had held a strong spirit of Baijiu had already launched a big Baijiu stock reduction.
According to the previously announced fund four seasons, Liu Yanchun managed the new growth of the Great Wall, which included more than four heavily loaded Baijiu stocks including Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) during the four quarter, with Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) reduction of up to 21.31%. Hou Hao managed the CSI liquor index, the securities investment fund also reduced the number of Baijiu Baijiu to over 20%, and the Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) reduction rate even reached 30%.
Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) in the list of top ten shareholders recently disclosed as of March 29, e Fangda small and medium-sized stocks managed by Zhang Kun held 3 million shares Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , a decrease of 11 million shares compared with 14 million shares in the third quarterly report of last year; The 10 billion securities private placement fund issued by lilen investment under hilling capital has withdrawn from the list of Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) top ten circulating shareholders, and it was the seventh largest circulating shareholder (292 million yuan) at the end of the third quarter of last year.
The north capital also runs away from the Baijiu liquor stocks. Take Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) as an example, which has long been among the top ten stocks actively traded by foreign investors. Since this year, there have been repeated net outflows of funds for many days. As of the closing on the 28th, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has presented a net sale on the 12th trading day, with a cumulative net outflow of 8.949 billion yuan. Among them, the net outflow on several trading days exceeded 1 billion yuan. For example, the net outflow on March 14 and 15 was 1.556 billion yuan and 2.706 billion yuan respectively, and the cumulative net outflow on two days was 4.262 billion yuan; On March 23, the net outflow was 1.279 billion yuan.
It is held that although the Baijiu sector has been adjusted for many times, besides the Baijiu season, it is gradually getting off the stage, and gradually moving towards the off-season. The recent decline is related to the recent decline in Moutai's wholesale price and the online platform of the electronic business.
According to the official account of WeChat public today, the price of Moutai liquor of different categories dropped sharply on the two day of March 25th and 26th, and the number of products dropped by more than 100 yuan, and the drop was more than 400 yuan / bottle. Among them, the original box Feitian of 53 degrees and 500 ml in 22 years fell from 2900 yuan to 2750 yuan, and the loose box Feitian fell from 2650 yuan to 2500 yuan; The 20-year versions of the above products decreased from 3100 yuan to 2830 yuan and 2850 yuan to 2650 yuan respectively. Previously, the public price of the above products was more than 3000 yuan, and even reached the market retail price of nearly 4000 yuan / bottle in the second half of last year.
It is held that the price of Baijiu vane is falling because of the impact of the layout of the electricity supplier on the dealer, causing the market to cut meat and sell goods.
The official account of mobile Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) WeChat is released today. The I Moutai digital marketing APP is on trial in March 31, 2022. From now on, consumers can search for I Moutai in mainstream mobile phone shopping mall. I Maotai supports consumers' online registration, real name authentication, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) payment, refund cancellation, store delivery, etc. Consumers who have successfully applied for the purchase need to bring their ID cards to the designated social channels and Maotai self operated company to pick up the goods.
In the trial operation stage, consumers can make an appointment to purchase the latest four products in "I Maotai" every day: 53 ° 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the tiger), 53 ° 500ml Maotai 1935, 53 ° 375ml 2 (year of the tiger), 53 ° 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasures). It is worth noting that 500ml ordinary Feitian Maotai is not on the sales list. Maotai said it is mainly to avoid excessive focus and speculation on Feitian Maotai.
At the same time, the price of Maotai was forced to rise. The recommended retail price of pu58 generation products has been raised to 1499 yuan, corresponding to the increase in the ex factory price of pu58 generation in December 2021. At present, the ex factory price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and the recommended retail price of terminals have been fully in line with Feitian Maotai.
organization "confident"
Although the stock price fell and the leader also entered the adjustment period of business testing, from the latest results, the transcripts of listed liquor enterprises are not as bad as the stock price board, and many institutions also showed optimism about the long-term stock price.
Data show that in 2022 1-2 months, China's scale Baijiu enterprises accumulated 126.6 million litres of production, an increase of 5.4% over the same period last year.
The overall output of Baijiu in China showed an overall growth trend, and the increase was obvious in 1-2 months in 2022, which was obviously higher than that of last year. In 2021, the added value of industries above Designated Size in Guizhou Province increased by 12.9% over the previous year, with an average increase of 8.9% in the two years. Among the 19 key monitored industrial industries in the province, the added value of 12 industries maintained growth. Among them, the added value of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing increased by 40.7% over the previous year. 1450500 tons of beverage wine, an increase of 11.3%.
In terms of performance, the operation from January to February 2022 announced by many listed liquor enterprises mentioned the performance improvement brought by the overall market dynamic sales in the peak season of the Spring Festival.
For example, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) said that during the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales momentum of the company's products was good, the market showed a strong sales trend, and successfully achieved a "good start". From January to February, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) said that the middle and high-end products such as Qinghua Fen Liquor series have achieved substantial growth, and the operating revenue and net profit have reached the best level in history. The company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan from January to February, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
As of today, Baijiu 2021 performance notice has also basically been released, most of the performance is pre - happy, including 11 leading Baijiu and sub faucets, including Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , and the total revenue and net profit of 2021 are increasing.
For example, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 11.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 11.3% Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) in 2021, the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies is expected to increase by more than 30%, mainly due to the growth of operating revenue and the continuous increase of the proportion of medium and high-end products. At the same time, the company implements fine management to further reduce the expense rate.
It is worth noting that the revenue or profit growth of many companies is as high as more than 80% Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) 2021's revenue increased by 87% year-on-year (3.41 billion yuan), and the net profit attributable to the parent company also increased by 86% year-on-year to 910 million yuan Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) also said that in 2021, the revenue increased by 84% year-on-year to 4.97 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 114% year-on-year, and the profit scale reached 1.25 billion yuan Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) it is also estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 5.234 billion yuan - 5.542 billion yuan, an increase of 2.155 billion yuan - 2.463 billion yuan over the same period of last year, an increase of 70% - 80% year-on-year.
Because Baijiu sector outstanding indicators in the first quarter, strong performance support, although the short-term focus of the market is Moutai's price decline on the demand boom and channel confidence, but many brokerages believe that the value of the medium and long term space has emerged.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) said that the current proportion of Baijiu liquor sales accounted for only about 5% of the industry, with great potential for upgrading, and sustained economic growth will ensure adequate consumption capacity. The short-term epidemic situation intensifies negative emotions, rational thinking, looking for long-term layout opportunities. Some Baijiu valuation has dropped to even lower than the 5 year average valuation level. Under the assumption of neutrality, it has already had 3 years and 1 times space, and has higher certainty.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) researcher Gong Yuanyue expressed the need to maintain confidence. At present, Baijiu is mainly used for stock liquors in the off-season, taking into account that the inventory of the main liquor is basically controlled at a reasonable level after the Spring Festival, and the pressure is relatively controllable. The main liquor companies have not lowered the annual sales target. Facing the recent apace of Moutai's Baijiu, Gong Yuanyue's judgement is due to the impact of the short term epidemic and the upcoming news of Moutai's new business platform. The impact of the short-term epidemic will not change the trend of the liquor industry development.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) expects that the epidemic will slowly dissipate in the next few years, and the consumption of Baijiu will continue to increase. In the short term, the outbreak of regional epidemic has been repeated, especially in city of Shanghai, Qingdao, Shenzhen and Suzhou. The overreaction of market to the epidemic is likely to cause some wrong valuation of liquor enterprises. However, the impact of point epidemic on the national high-end Baijiu liquor is bound to be limited. The decrease of sales volume in some regions will not impede the overall consumption volume. Therefore, the consumption growth of the national high-end Baijiu is still optimistic.
Huachang Securities believes that the Baijiu sector is in the background of the overall weak demand of the whole market. The external aggravating factors such as the recent epidemic intensification, the inflation exceeding expectations and so on, have made the whole consumption demand toughness of food and beverage industry face the test, while the public products are facing the test of the cost pressure increasing in the year. The valuation of the sector has fallen back accordingly. From the perspective of selection during the year, it is suggested to focus on the sectors with strong performance support and layout the leading value space in the dimension of 1-2 years.
