According to the data of China Unicom, in the past two weeks (from March 14 to March 25), the largest pullback of the CSI 300 index since the high point in 2021 reached 33.52%, the largest pullback record since 2015. Equity funds, known as A-share investment shock absorbers, also face a sharp pullback. The general stock fund index and partial stock hybrid fund index reached the lowest point on March 15 from the high point in 2021, and the maximum pullback ranges reached 22.87% and 22.63% respectively.
With the continuous decline of major market indexes, there is a large outflow of main funds and foreign capital.
When the market bottomed out, Liu Gesong, the “top flow” fund manager, said in a live broadcast recently that we should cherish the A-share assets at this point. This fluctuation also exists in history, but not everyone can grasp it. At present, we should think more about which assets have been “wrongly killed”.
index keeps falling, and funds continue to flow out
In the past two weeks, the market has fallen rapidly. Both the CSI 300 and the gem index have hit a new low, and the correction from the high point has exceeded 20%, forming a so-called “technical bear market”.
Lei, chief research official of Xingshi investment, said that although the index fell by about 20% in the short term, there is still a certain gap compared with the major adjustment in history. If we look at the macro fundamentals of China and overseas respectively: the chain reaction of overseas geographical conflicts is evolving, and the market also has worse expectations; The current round of China’s epidemic is the most serious one.
In terms of index, taking the CSI 300 with the highest economic relevance as an example, the lowest point of this round of decline reached 3942 points, more than 10% higher than the lowest point of 3503 points in 2020.
“Looking at the valuation, the overall valuation is in a low area, and many of them are at the lowest in history. For example, at present, banks have reached the lowest Pb in history, the PEV of listed insurance companies is lower than 1, and Pb is also lower than 1, which was unthinkable before. The only valuation that is a little high is some booming track stocks, but peg has also fallen. If you see that next year, many have reached a reasonable position.” Fang Lei said.
According to the data of Tonglian, the main funds in the A-share market sold a net 47.212 billion yuan in that week (March 21-march 25). For the fifth consecutive week of net sales, the net sales in that week increased by 40.811 billion yuan compared with the previous week, of which the top five industries of net sales are computers, power equipment, electronics, non bank finance and public utilities.
The net sales of northbound funds in the current week (March 21-march 25) were 12.598 billion yuan, and the net sales in the previous week (March 14-march 18) were 16.358 billion yuan. The scale of net sales in a single week narrowed for two consecutive weeks. Among them, the net outflow of Shanghai Stock connect was 6.331 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 6.266 billion yuan.
In the past week (from March 21 to March 25), the three industries with the largest net outflow of funds are computers, power equipment and electronics, with the outflow of funds of 27.018 billion yuan, 25.062 billion yuan and 19.144 billion yuan respectively.
In the same period, the net redemption amount of stock ETF was 10.872 billion yuan. After four consecutive weeks of net subscription, the weekly net redemption scale reached the largest in four months.
On March 25, it was reported that private placement boss Dan bin (Chairman of Dongfang harbor) was suspected to be short, and the net value of hundreds of products fluctuated almost zero. According to the data of private placement network, since March, the net value of danbin’s products has been updated three times, but the net value fluctuation of almost all products is close to 0.
Dan Bin said in a telephone interview with the first financial reporter that the current position is really low, about 10%.
The sluggish performance of the market also affected the number of fund issues.
According to the Research Report of capital securities, the number of newly established funds in the past two weeks (March 14-march 25) was only 32 respectively.
Combing and analyzing the data of newly established funds in the past 30 weeks shows that the median number of funds established per week is 43.5, the 1 / 4 quantile is 31, the 3 / 4 quantile is 51.75, and 32 belong to the low level of the past period.
“valuation of some sectors has slowly returned to a reasonable range”
Fang Lei judged that at present, the downward risk of the stock market is small. At least “many stocks can’t fall anywhere”. At present, the space for stock selection and shareholding in this position is obviously large.
He said that the valuation of industries such as medicine, military industry, semiconductor and optional consumption has slowly fallen back to a reasonable range.
“After a rough calculation, the peg of many good companies in medicine has reached 1, and the best ones may still be about 2; the military industry is also similar, some peg is close to 1, and some peg is relatively high.” Fang Lei said.
The pharmaceutical sector has also attracted the research of many top flow fund managers.
St Guoyi ( Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) . SZ) disclosed the latest record of investor relations activities. On March 13, Zhang Kun, the star fund manager of e-fund, participated in the teleconference exchange organized by Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) organization. More than 80 institutional investors including Yu Bo of e-fund, Wang Junzheng, Tan Donghan and Ding Yang of ICBC Credit Suisse fund, Wang Shuai and Bai Jie of BOC fund and Hu Zhen of Prudential fund also attended the meeting.
It is worth noting that the previous announcement showed that the daily purchase restriction of e fund blue chip selection fund and e fund high-quality selection fund managed by Zhang Kun was increased from 10000 yuan to 50000 yuan.
“E fund blue chip selection fund has fallen by 26.66% in the past year. From the perspective of PE valuation, the valuation of e fund blue chip selection has basically been reduced to a reasonable position.” A brokerage analyst told the first financial reporter.
On the afternoon of March 23, star private placement Jinglin assets held an online customer communication meeting. Gao Yuncheng, general manager of Jinglin assets, believes that the high probability in the first quarter of this year is the most difficult time for the stock market. From the perspective of liquidity and expectation, the most difficult panic selling stage should have occurred last week. Extreme expectations are reversed on the margin, and the market is about to find the bottom of performance. For those companies that have experienced a cycle and maintain or enhance their core competitiveness, they should buy heavily and hold for a long time.
Gao Yuncheng also pointed out that the vast majority of China concept stocks do not have the risk of delisting, and there is no extreme situation of “price return to zero” that some investors think.
in a recent live broadcast, Liu Gesong believed that the market retreat since the beginning of the year reflected several expectations of market concern: first, the expectation of macroeconomic growth this year. The market generally believed that it was still in the stage where credit relief did not fully play its role; Second, worry about the impact of overseas interest rate hikes, especially by the Federal Reserve; Third, the uncertainty of the international environment caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rapid rise of energy prices are worried about the pressure of rising global costs in the future. Fourth, on the capital side, when the market fluctuates, the trading behavior of some funds intensifies the callback of some trading crowded sectors.
He said he agreed with some strategic analysts that we should cherish the A-share assets in this position. This fluctuation also exists in history, but not everyone can grasp it. At present, we should think about which assets have been “wrongly killed”.
